Neil Siskind’s Poetry

Unforeseeable Betrayal

With the fire and ire of a despot in power,
your strength denied the length of the ultimate hour.
You planted seeds filled with deeds for the loyal to sour;
and clear thinking, your secret disdain did devour … as the might of your flaws forced your judgment to cower.

Too much trust often thrust on those seemingly real,
in dark corners, concealed from adorers, are the places they steal,
eventually, what’s expected to be, replaced by bravado and zeal,
with the consequence being how a preponderance of victims would feel.

Banished to Elba to live in a cell,
like a tyrant who’s captured and in isolation’s hell;
no, not you, my sweet, ‘tis how, in defeat, my broken spirit does dwell-
while you once seemed omnipotent, your character is impotent- in so far as I can tell.

Be gone, for the soreness of an angry mob comes,
as you violate trust and as your morality numbs,
in my eyes, what survives, are just your character’s crumbs;
far away seem the days you appeared as the sun … now eclipsed by your choices that can’t be undone.

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The Shifted Path of Capital Principle- by NEIL SISKIND

I’ve developed the economic principle, “The Shifted Path of Capital Principle”, to explain that, in the modern U.S. economy, capital often flows from the Fed, to banks, and then directly into assets (as opposed to moving from the Fed, to banks, and into the broader economy through investments by businesses in their respective operations, as in prior U.S. economies and eras), which leads to potentially dangerous asset inflation, without more general economy-wide inflation, and even with economy-wide deflation, due, also, in part, to the shifted path of capital.

In the old economy (or, the Industrial and Post-Industrial Eras), assets, such as homes and stocks, were beneficiaries of industry and inventiveness, hard work, and prosperity. These factors, or characteristics, led to earnings growth for companies, and wage growth and income growth for employees and executives, and, in turn, led to higher stock prices for companies and rising home demand from, and rising home prices for, employees and consumers. This path of capital, from business investment and growth outward to the larger economy, also led to higher product prices, as demand grew, and as U.S. labor was finite. Eventually, inflation set-in, interest rates increased, and the economy slowed. Stock prices would reflect earnings declines (or earnings growth, if company pricing-power permitted for price increases to outpace inflation), and home prices would level-off or decline as interest rates rose and as demand slowed. Eventually, as interest rates declined, a new up-cycle in the economy would begin.

In the modern economy (or, the digital economy), dollars flow more directly from the Fed into assets. Dollars flow directly from the Fed to banks, and then into homes which are used by investors as generators of income and profit, rather than as places to live as the result of employment, income growth, and economic prosperity, as has, historically, been the norm. Houses and apartments become trading vehicles and short-term income generators. On the equities side, dollar denominated debt is incurred by companies to buy their own company stock to push up the price and their EPS. This flow of debt capital directly into stocks- instead of into companies’ operations, where it leads to earnings growth through productivity, ingenuity, and capex, resulting in sales, pricing power, and stock price growth- works to “directly” (rather than through a more indirect “trickle through”) and, some might say, “artificially”, cause stock prices to rise, irrespective of any growth in earnings, or even in revenues.

At the same time as inexpensive debt capital is being used by businesses and investors to inflate assets, it’s also being used by businesses to deflate prices and wages.

The combination of cheap debt and a higher stock price is used by companies to increase “scale” through heightened marketing and acquisitions. The scale allows for lower input costs, and, thus, lower consumer prices, and lower wages as competition declines. The scale provides for higher profits, due to a greater industry presence and more revenues driven by size and low prices, and fewer competitors. Big companies grow bigger, and small competitors have lesser and lesser abilities to compete because technology causes consumers to care less about location, convenience, and relationship than about price, alone.

All of the above, taken together, means that the path of capital leads to less price and wage inflation, and more investment-oriented, or even risk-oriented uses of capital. Asset and debt inflation displace price and wage inflation, as capital flows directly from the Fed to banks, and from banks to assets- instead of into capex, innovation, productivity, and wage growth.

In the modern economy, a mature economic cycle means less price and wage pressures, and more asset bubbles and financial imbalances from misallocations of cheap credit. As the Fed looks at accepted economic indicators to evaluate inflationary pressures, it misreads signals to indicate a low level of economic risk (because of low price inflation), and then keeps rates too low for too long, as asset imbalances grow- until it’s too late to ease-out of the situation or achieve a soft landing.

Flat and inverted yield curves are misread to only reflect low inflation expectations (including misreading flat and inverted curves to reflect low term premiums due solely to low inflation expectations), rather than portend asset crashes, and reflect investors’ expectations of eventual slower or negative growth.

When the Fed does decide to act because it sees credit and asset bubble risks, this divergence in how debt capital has affected prices and assets (to cause product and wage de-flation vs. asset in-flation) puts the Fed into no-win scenarios. Raising interest rates where economic growth and inflation are muted, but where assets grow pricey, causes public and political outrage because the Fed is deflating assets that have been the engine of the economy (such as real estate) while pushing already low growth and low inflation even lower through higher costs of capital. The Fed’s attempts to limit systemic risk from crashing asset prices where the Fed has let asset bubbles fester is difficult where price and wage growth and overall inflation are muted.

In the modern economy, if the Fed fails to raise interest rates in a timely manner (by choice or by external pressures) where inflation is not justifying such action, a business cycle will still come to an end, only in a different manner- despite investors’ preferring not to recognize this. If growth and inflation are low and the Fed maintains low interest rates to extend business cycles, asset prices and debt will become inflated, and, instead of economic slowdowns, we get asset crashes and financial crises, which can be triggered by any variety of events.

One way or another, sooner or later, a business cycle ends.

Recommendations for achieving maximum financial stability-

Because of the shifted path of capital, the Fed’s assumptions about, and regular and standard measurements of financial risks to the general public and to the financial system, should also shift:

The shifted path of capital in the modern economy must be understood, embraced, and recognized at earlier stages of an economic cycle so that entire economies and financial systems don’t have to be compromised by interest rate hikes to control asset prices in economies which do not, otherwise, call for rate hikes due to low growth and/or low inflation. Indicators of asset inflation, instead of, or along with, indicators of price and wage inflation should be more closely monitored and addressed by the Fed.

Because of the shifted path of capital, legislators should better understand the path of capital once it leaves the Treasury, and the reason for the path, and create laws and policies that better protect the public and the financial system in this new economic paradigm, or else take necessary legislative measures to reverse the trajectory of this modern paradigm:

Mere awareness of and de-risking from the shift in the path of capital through the economy earlier-on in cycles (through the Fed’s early identification of pockets of instability and then raising of interest rates in response) is not enough, especially since it’s unrealistic to expect the Fed to be able to time monetary policy precisely enough, and since such a policy, alone, would significantly shorten business cycles. Legislators and policy makers must understand the underlying reasons for the shift, where liquidity provided to businesses by the Fed and banks, now, very often bypasses what is believed to be supply side stimuli (i.e. businesses- and, in particular, businesses’ investments in their operations, as opposed to in their stocks), and goes directly into assets and asset growth activities, allowing for stock prices to rise, even when earnings don’t, and allowing deflation to take hold where only the largest companies that scale the fastest and the largest by acquiring other smaller assets in their respective industries, or through other growth initiatives, thus, achieving the lowest prices and downward wage pressures from less competition, can survive; and, they must understand the shift on the consumer side, allowing for (or causing) the cost of shelter to detach from incomes. With these understandings, legislators must create new federal legislation to maximize more long-term sustainable growth without the constant risk of asset bubbles followed by asset crashes from the Fed tightening on monetary policy to control asset and credit bubbles, while, otherwise, preferring to keep rates low to encourage economic expansion. New legislation should include changes to the Fed’s mandates, and changes to the Fed’s policies, tools, and the Fed’s standards of measurements of economic risks from low interest rates and liquidity (such as looking at wage inflation, which may be slow to come, if ever, even as assets grow out of control), and changes to bank regulations; or else, once legislators understand the underlying economic reasons for the shift, if the shift is deemed to be a net-negative evolution of our economy, attempt to use legislation and regulations to have the root causes of the shift minimized or reversed by creating changes to investor, borrower, and bank incentives, and to make structural changes to the economy.

This Fed Could Not Be Any Less Transparent- By NEIL SISKIND

This Fed would have us believe it is operating in accordance with its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. It has said as much.

The Fed, though, has a third mandate ever since the financial crisis: Stability of the financial system.

Chairman Powell, in his December 19th testimony, clearly said that he is not concerned about inflation- in prices or in wages- but the Fed continues to raise interest rates.

The Fed would have us believe it feels compelled to get interest rates to a point of neutral, where it is neither accommodative or restrictive. Not true. The Fed wants credit and risk to tighten- to be restrictive on the economy. Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, made it plain in an interview with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays on December 20, 2018, that he believes that the Fed wants to slow the economy- period. Chairman Powell’s comments on the lack of inflation and intent to raise rates, confirms this.

Chairman Powell has failed to articulate one area of concern which makes the continuation of raising rates seem logical- not even any inflation concerns. But raising them as the stock market crashes so that he has cushion if he ever needs it, is not believable; prudent- but not believable.

Here are some comments Chairman Powell has made in the two most recent Fed meetings:

  • No asset class is too pricey
  • There’s little wage inflation and wage growth is not necessarily inflationary
  • Corporate debt is concerning, but not obscene
  • Price inflation is about 2%, at best, and has been stuck there
  • It’s not the Fed’s job to ensure financial stability
  • Labor markets are tight but wage growth doesn’t cause inflation
  • The U.S.-China conflict is not a big concern
  • No comments at all on home prices

The Fed would have us believe it is moving rates higher so that if and when there is an economic downturn, it will have bullets in its gun (or arrows in its quiver) to re-stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates. This is not true. No Fed would hike into slowing GDP growth and a sinking stock market just so it can cut if it needs to “someday”, while it purports to see little inflation or economic that it can articulate (aside from some concern about Italy’s problems).

Some might argue that this is exactly the time to hike rates- while the economy is strong and can withstand it- even if the stock market doesn’t like it. But, with no inflation, and expectations by everyone of lower GDP and heightening global stresses in the coming months, raising rates as cushion for a slowdown without the ability to point to any foreseeable risks, is a bit theoretical and intangible- and this Chairman was supposed to be avoiding theory to the detriment of pragmatism and data dependence. Moreover, it’s not so much that the economy is strong as much as it is that the Fed will not admit any weakness. Powell is trying to have it both ways- raise rates and have people accept it as prudent without acknowledging any troubles- and it’s not working.

This does not mean that the Fed is wrong for hiking interest rates, it just means that it is not being transparent about the growing and foreseeable risks as it does so. The Fed has elected to perplex people, over alarming us.

The Fed has had one agenda with regard to its rate hikes- to slow the economy by tightening credit and deflating asset prices built on debt and risk. No other story line it presents holds up to scrutiny.

This Fed is choosing jawboning and its third mandate over transparency in order to get credit to tighten itself without actual rate hikes, if possible, and get people to stop making and taking speculative loans and investments. This, along with the lack of transparency and a complete understanding of the Fed’s intentions, are causing significant volatility and declines in stocks and in homes. But, the Fed may be fine with that if it can do one thing that matters most- prevent another financial crises due to continued extensions of cheap credit, more bad loans, and more asset inflation.

The Fed has recently expressed some dovishness as asset prices have declined, having much to do with people’s concerns that asset price declines will affect the “real economy”. If this proves true, the Fed may be near done with its hiking cycle. If this does not prove to be the case, per the data, the Fed may either decide to continue with hikes until the economy slows- or it could remain dovish, since assets prices and credit may come under control. We’ll see.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Prepare Yourself for 2019! The Fed, China, N. Korea, & Trump- By NEIL SISKIND

Here are the major things you should prepare for in the new year:

  1. The Fed is determined to slow the economy. While it may become more dovish and raise rates less than previously expected, this would only be in response to much tighter credit, lower earnings, contracting GDP, and lower asset values. Do not underestimate the Fed’s intent to slow this economy- which does not mean lower inflation- because there isn’t any- but means lower asset values, and whatever that brings with it- including lower profits and higher unemployment. Invest accordingly- now.
  2. As U.S.-China negotiations continue, the relationship will sour further as it becomes clear that little common ground and compromise is possible because our cultures are too divergent, and our respective values too deeply entrenched, causing frustrations to grow. The trade conflict will escalate- no matter how much edamame the Chinese agree to buy from us.
  3. North Korea will rise as a major irritant on the world stage as it seeks to stoke the flames of the U.S.- China dispute and seeks all the benefits it can achieve for itself from the divide. North Korea will present a major threat to global stability starting in the first half of 2019.
  4. The U.S. and China will face a potential military showdown in the South China Sea, which may begin as a potential military conflict between China and Canada, which has been our proxy for actions against China, or over a U.S. military action in North Korea from the air or sea.
  5. We need to now see how this shocking U.S. withdrawal from Syria unfolds in terms of new terror threats- which I believed, and was thrilled, were nearly cured by the President; so, I am not sure what he is thinking. I await more facts. I suspect that a military conflict in Asia is possible (most likely with N. Korea, though possibly also with China over territory issues- not over trade … although all issues with China are connected and inter-related at this point).

2019 is going to be a thrilling and terrifying year of global events from Europe, to Asia, to the Middle East- to the United States. What else would you expect from a real time global version of “The Apprentice”, where everyone is competing to make a profit and to survive and move to the next level before Donald Trump lays down the hammer?

Lights … cameras …

roll ’em!

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Neil-Siskind-Pic

Cap Rate Abuse- By NEIL SISKIND

Cap rates- or capitalization rates- are ratios used to show the annual pre-mortgage cash flow from real estate rental income. For example, if you pay $1M for an apartment building, and after all expenses (except mortgage), you have $100,000.00 in profit, then you have what’s known as a “10 cap”- or 10% return on your money. This is different than your cash on cash return. If you finance 70% of the $1M, your cash on cash percentage return- calculated either before or after mortgage payments- is different than your cap rate.

Sellers and brokers attempt to apply the cap rate analysis to sales of businesses and alternative real estate investments. For example, a seller will offer his or her business for $1M and show that income is $300,000.00 profit after all expenses- and call that a “30 cap” because you get 30% return on your money if you pay cash. While, depending on the type of business, and assuming you make that rerun, it might be a good deal, I would not call that a “30 cap”. It is simply a term that does not apply. “ROI” or “earnings multiple” are terms that apply to a business sale, but, not “cap rate”.

Here’s where it gets more tricky or “gray”. Alternative real estate investments, like a mobile home park, for example, use the “cap rate” terminology. Technically, it is real estate, so the term does apply. But, a cap rate on a mobile home park is not the same as on an apartment building (speaking generally, now- because locations of properties come into play here, also). A mobile home park in the middle of nowhere may generate a 12% return or a “12 cap”, but, because its in the middle of nowhere, and because its potential to be another type of investment, say, a condominium complex, does not exist, one cannot compare it to a “12 cap” investment in a busy suburb or small city, where the real estate has potential to be a lot more someday.

Hotels and motels also should not go by “cap rates” because they have significant operational issues that make them more akin to running a business than the more passive activity of collecting rent (though, of course, it’s never very passive). These businesses are tied to many things that real estate- especially apartments- is not tied to. For example, travel and airline issues, the parts of the economy that affect tourism, and local labor pools for customer service and cleaning. So, hospitality property sales prices should not be measured by “cap rates”. These kinds of properties have other standards of measurement, such as “revpar” and earnings.

So, although a “cap rate” is a “cap rate”, when comparing investments and cap rates, part of the analysis is the upside potential of the investment- not just the income. If you compare apples to lemons, what is, otherwise, a good cap rate if it were an apple, may really be a bad cap rate, or simply a bad investment, if it lacks any real potential to appreciate- and it’s really a lemon, a good cap rate notwithstanding. Further, where part of the analysis of a property, such as in the case of a hospitality property, includes the need to evaluate operational and economic issues beyond just adding up rental income and calculating the cost of maintaining the physicality of the property- but includes servicing customers- the use of “cap rates” to measure asking prices is not proper.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 9 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

“Synchronized Global Growth” Is Now “Synchronized Global Slowth™”

A phrase first coined in 2018 New York City business attorney, Neil Steven Siskind, “synchronized global slowth™” (or “synchronous slowth™”) is the occurrence or condition of multiple emerging market and developed market economies commencing a downward trajectory of economic and GDP growth, or actually contracting to a point of slow, stagnant, or negative economic and GDP growth, at simultaneous, or nearly simultaneous times, largely, or, at least in part, due to rising interest rates and/or stricter lending regulations (such as rising reserve requirement ratios and stricter bank balance sheet requirements) in the larger, more developed or fully developed economies, such as the United States and China, resulting in diminished liquidity in those economies, and, thus, diminished liquidity and less available dollars in smaller, or emerging economies, in turn. Slowing consumer demand and business spending in the larger more developed economies that result from a constrictive monetary policy, results in less export business for the smaller emerging economies which often depend on the larger economies to buy their goods, and in further economic slowth. Rising interest rates in the larger developed markets force weaker emerging markets to, likewise, consider raising their own interest rates to protect their respective currencies, even as their economies weaken- further expanding the breadth and enhancing the depth of global economic slowth. Currency issues resulting from rising rates or tighter lending rules, play a particularly large role in “synchronized global slowth” as the U.S. dollar strengthens from rising interest rates, making repayment of the dollar-denominated debt of many countries more costly to repay, creating additional global slowth. Political factors, such as trade disputes in large economies leading to trade barriers, including, tariffs, may also play a role in the occurrence of “synchronized global slowth”.

Whistling Past The Fed- By NEIL SISKIND

“The big miss” following the last Powell speech was by the public – not by the Fed. People spent so much time trying to decipher Chairman Powell (some getting him right, some getting him wrong) that they ignored his clear statement that, regardless of whether there are future hikes, the “hikes to date” have not yet fully hit the economy. So, while investors want to know if there will be future Fed hikes that would hit company margins, or compress stock multiples, or encourage investment alternatives (such as cash or Treasuries), they overlook that it will be growth and earnings that will be the primary catalysts for weaker stocks from what the Fed has already done! Earnings, ultimately, are the primary drivers of stock prices. Investors should worry less about if future hikes will happen than what existing hikes will cause. If they focus on the former, they may overlook the perils ahead from the latter. Even if you think the Fed turned dovish, it doesn’t mean that growth and earnings won’t be declining further- which would mean that stock prices are too high, regardless of what the Fed does next … because of what its already done.

If you want to see if and how Fed hikes will affect your stocks- best to look at the ones they’ve already done- and what those will do.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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China & The G20: Some People Are Way-Underestimating Trump’s Ambition- By NEIL SISKIND

People who are hoping for, or contemplating, or expecting a U.S. trade deal with China at the upcoming G20 (or anytime soon thereafter) are really not paying attention. They are caught-up in how the NAFTA-USMCA process went, and they are caught up in President Trump’s own language and bravado about his negotiating skills.

The U.S.-China situation is different than any other deal or circumstance.

Donald Trump didn’t become president just so that he could tweak some trade deals, pass some tax cuts, and then head home. Trump- like any other man- perhaps more than many other men- wants to effect change. He wants to have a real and valuable impact on history- like any president does. In Trump’s case, it’s a valuable impact on American history that he desires, more so than on world history (though the former, necessarily, causes the latter).

President Trump will not be content to just return to his apartment on Fifth Avenue in a few years and go back to yelling at CNN through his television screen as he drinks champagne cocktails and imagines the kind of country in which he wished he lived. This is his chance to make America the way he wants it. No man- and certainly not Donald Trump- would squander that opportunity.

The Trump-Bannon doctrine in relation to China is that it’s east vs. west, and us vs. them. This is a battle over who will control the world in the 21st century.

So, what does President Trump want?

President Trump wants a strong economy. But, more than that, he wants a great legacy. He wants to be the man who made America great (again). Going long of Donald Trump’s ego is a trade on which one will never lose money.

President Trump wants power and influence over North Korea and that valuable real estate (for America, not for himself), he wants to limit China’s economic and political colonization of countries in Asia and Africa, he wants fair and honest environmental, labor, and Intellectual Property laws and practices in China, and he wants a China that plays by the same rules as the rest of us. Trump wants China’s mercantilism, with it’s negative effect on U.S. labor, and China’s use of it to grow into a world power at our expense, to end; and he wants U.S. companies and investors to have the same access to China’s markets and assets as Chinese companies and investors have had in the United States.

The Trump administration is looking more and more like the Reagan administration, with many of the same Republican players, a creation of the media at the helm, low taxes, big deficits, a cold war environment with some occasional military chest-thumping, a peace through strength attitude, and a determination to defeat communism and totalitarianism and restore America to its glory as the world’s leader, in all respects. President Trump, with regard to China, is mirroring and attempting to emulate President Reagan in how he successfully pushed the Soviet Union to the brink by forcing it to spend itself into submission, while growing the U.S. economy as large as possible. Reagan wasn’t looking to sell the Soviets more products- he was looking to remove the Soviet Union as a threat to U.S. values, and security, and power. Why would you think that President Trump wants anything less?

There will be no trade deal (though the new tariffs scheduled to take effect in the new year could be temporarily delayed, pending a resolution). Steve Bannon and Jack Ma probably have it right when they suggest that we are at the beginning of a generational conflict without clearly delineated battle or finish lines, or time frames. As tensions rise between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea, over Taiwan, over North Korea, and in the global economy, the trade dispute is but a mere symptom of (and, perhaps, a mere red herring for) a growing U.S.-China power struggle for world dominance- and President Trump isn’t going to settle for anything less than a total win (or, at least, the establishment of a clear path for future victory)- which will require China to change its economic and legal structures, its behaviors, beliefs, strategies, and even its ambitions and time frames.

President Trump’s message to President Xi:

Mr. Xi: Tear-down-this-Chinese-wall!

 

 

________________________

endnotes

  1. China’s most recent PMI report was in-line with expectations. It was, actually, very likely, much lower than forecast, but revised higher by the Chinese government. China is, no doubt, loath to arrive at this G20 and negotiations with President Trump appearing to be in any more of a desperate condition than has already been made known.
  2. China will never cave to one demand of the United States, in particular: That China not provide subsidies to its state-owned enterprises. This practice goes to the essence and to the very core of China’s modus operandi.
  3. Any “framework” or agreement to talk further that comes out of the G20 meeting between the U.S. and China would not be helpful to markets, as such a vague result will not allow companies to properly plan-out their manufacturing businesses or allow non-manufacturers to have complete visibility into their future operations costs. Markets and businesses need some level of certainty, and a mere “framework” for further talks will not provide that.
  4. Update: As I expected, no trade agreement was reached at the G20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Jinping. President Trump’s decision to delay implementation of the new tariffs, with very little quid pro quo from China for his forbearance, is an indication that Trump is very concerned about the potential economic impacts of tariffs as the U.S. economy is slowing. Whether President Trump will see-through his plan for new tariffs remains to be seen- in about 90 days. Regardless, no trade deal with China will ever be made containing anything less than all, or most, of the Trump administration’s demands- a deal that China is highly unlikely to do. Whether the new tariffs are levied or not when it becomes clear that no trade agreement is possible, the relationship between the two nations will deteriorate from there. There are many other legal measures beyond the levying of tariffs that the U.S. can take to interfere with and challenge China’s global activities, and there are many other ways for the U.S. and China to clash in and around the world.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

 

Is The Fed Really Fighting Inflation? Probably Not – By NEIL SISKIND

Isn’t the credit/lending bubble what the Fed is really fighting here?

The inflation concern due to low unemployment is just a red herring to prevent panic based on the truth- financial instability and bad loans. This is what is causing conflicts within the FOMC between hawks and doves and the confusion in markets about why the Fed is hiking so much with little inflation in sight? Higher wages is not wage “inflation”- in a pejorative sense. It’s o.k. for wages to rise modestly. If you can borrow money at 1% or 2% and lend to a company or for a real estate development at 7% or 8% … or in the case of consumer loans, at 12% or 14% … it’s worth the risk, and what the Fed is really scared about … as it should be, since this is what Greenspan and Bernanke missed … too many bad loans and risky behaviors. Easily-achieved yield spreads is probably why this time stocks are leading credit downward, where it is usually the opposite. The credit side is so easy to play at zero/low rates; borrow short- lend long.  It’s easier to borrow money at 2% and lend it out at 7% (especially if it’s secured, and particularly if it’s secured at a low LTV) then it is to borrow money and create equity, or make successful capital investments; seemingly, this is how investors have been seeing it … and the Fed has had enough of it. The Fed isn’t against rising prices and wages within a fair range … it’s called economic growth. What the Fed fears are unadvised loans on bad assets or to weak borrowers, and bad equity investments, all encouraged by irresistibly cheap money- with the ultimate fear, of course, being systemic risk. Credit and lending risks lead to asset bubble risks.

Watch the yield curve. It will invert in 2019- and the only thing that will cause it to re-steepen is not growth prospects- it will be the growing deficit as tax revenues decline … and then your tax rates may rise.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

The Siskind Law Firm- Neil Siskind, Esq.-Licensing, Distribution, Real Estate, Business Law

http://siskindlawfirm.com/

Neil S. Siskind, Esq, pictured center, Holiday party, December 2016

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products