Large Companies Are Good For Large Companies- Unless … By NEIL SISKIND

As companies in all industries grow larger and larger as their need for scale is greater and greater, and as margins and consumer incomes go lower and lower (or stay stuck), customers suffer from less and less customer service and lower and lower levels customer care.

Smaller companies are put out of business by the large companies, leaving consumers little choice.

Consumers patronize large companies because they often offer lower prices- often along with worse service.

Largeness of companies benefits those large companies- but, not consumers, unless they offer consumers lower prices- and this is not always the case.

For example, real estate brokerages are growing larger and larger as the large companies absorb local agencies. How does this benefit the consumer?

It doesn’t. The scale has not reduced the commission rates- or offered better service.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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You Should Fear An Economy Relying On The Consumer- by NEIL SISKIND

Business investment is weak, many corporate balance sheets have significant debt loads, stocks are crashing, wage growth is still weak while tariffs have been implemented and new ones await, and as interest rates have risen and are still rising.

Analysts point to a strong consumer and a strong jobs market as the bases for a strong economy going forward.

You can’t have demand side stimuli (consumer spending) support an economy, and you can’t have a strong jobs market, without supply side stimulus … not for very long.

This is 2005-2007 all over again- stagnant or slow wage growth, rising rates, low unemployment, high debt levels due to rates being low for long, sinking oil prices, low inflation, and asset (houses and stocks) and debt excesses- except now we also have a trade war.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

“Synchronized Global Growth” Is Now “Synchronized Global Slowth™”

A phrase first coined in 2018 New York City business attorney, Neil Steven Siskind, “synchronized global slowth™” (or “synchronous slowth™”) is the occurrence or condition of multiple emerging market and developed market economies commencing a downward trajectory of economic and GDP growth, or actually contracting to a point of slow, stagnant, or negative economic and GDP growth, at simultaneous, or nearly simultaneous times, largely, or, at least in part, due to rising interest rates and/or stricter lending regulations (such as rising reserve requirement ratios and stricter bank balance sheet requirements) in the larger, more developed or fully developed economies, such as the United States and China, resulting in diminished liquidity in those economies, and, thus, diminished liquidity and less available dollars in smaller, or emerging economies, in turn. Slowing consumer demand and business spending in the larger more developed economies that result from a constrictive monetary policy, results in less export business for the smaller emerging economies which often depend on the larger economies to buy their goods, and in further economic slowth. Rising interest rates in the larger developed markets force weaker emerging markets to, likewise, consider raising their own interest rates to protect their respective currencies, even as their economies weaken- further expanding the breadth and enhancing the depth of global economic slowth. Currency issues resulting from rising rates or tighter lending rules, play a particularly large role in “synchronized global slowth” as the U.S. dollar strengthens from rising interest rates, making repayment of the dollar-denominated debt of many countries more costly to repay, creating additional global slowth. Political factors, such as trade disputes in large economies leading to trade barriers, including, tariffs, may also play a role in the occurrence of “synchronized global slowth”.

Whistling Past The Fed- By NEIL SISKIND

“The big miss” following the last Powell speech was by the public – not by the Fed. People spent so much time trying to decipher Chairman Powell (some getting him right, some getting him wrong) that they ignored his clear statement that, regardless of whether there are future hikes, the “hikes to date” have not yet fully hit the economy. So, while investors want to know if there will be future Fed hikes that would hit company margins, or compress stock multiples, or encourage investment alternatives (such as cash or Treasuries), they overlook that it will be growth and earnings that will be the primary catalysts for weaker stocks from what the Fed has already done! Earnings, ultimately, are the primary drivers of stock prices. Investors should worry less about if future hikes will happen than what existing hikes will cause. If they focus on the former, they may overlook the perils ahead from the latter. Even if you think the Fed turned dovish, it doesn’t mean that growth and earnings won’t be declining further- which would mean that stock prices are too high, regardless of what the Fed does next … because of what its already done.

If you want to see if and how Fed hikes will affect your stocks- best to look at the ones they’ve already done- and what those will do.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Neil-Siskind-lawyer-picture

The Big Miss On The Fed- By NEIL SISKIND

“The big miss” was by the public – not by the Fed. People spent so much time trying to decipher Chairman Powell (some getting him right, some getting him wrong) that they ignored his clear statement that, regardless of whether there are future hikes, the “hikes to date” have not yet fully hit the economy. So, while investors want to know if there will be future Fed hikes that would hit company margins, or compress stock multiples, or encourage investment alternatives (such as cash or Treasuries), they overlook that it will be growth and earnings that will be the primary catalysts for weaker stocks from what the Fed has already done! Earnings, ultimately, are the primary drivers of stock prices. Investors should worry less about if future hikes will happen than what existing hikes will cause. If they focus on the former, they may overlook the perils ahead from the latter. Even if you think the Fed turned dovish, it doesn’t mean that growth and earnings won’t be declining further- which would mean that stock prices are too high, regardless of what the Fed does next … because of what its already done.

If you want to see if and how Fed hikes will affect your stocks- best to look at the ones they’ve already done- and what those will do.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Do Low Interest Rates And Excess Liquidity Actually Cause “De-flation”, Rather Than “In-flation”?- By NEIL SISKIND

Low interest rates and excess liquidity lead to excessive borrowing by real estate developers. More units- especially condominium units- are built. This leads to more supply, and, eventually, due to principle of supply and demand, lower values, lower sales prices, and lower rents. It may take some time and the withdrawal of liquidity until that occurs. One may argue that it is, therefore, the withdrawal of liquidity, and, thus, the lack of liquidity, and not liquidity itself, that causes the deflation. Perhaps- but it is the liquidity and fiscal stimulus, itself, that creates the environment and the supply that is necessary for the subsequent deflation upon a withdrawal of stimulus. Thus, liquidity is a primary component, and cause of, deflation. Excessive liquidity forces imbalances upward, which, sooner or later, result in imbalances to the downside when the buyers disappear, while the assets remaining in existence.

This process applies to all hard assets which experience growth in value as the result of the investment of capital derived from excess liquidity that causes supplies to rise beyond demand, and/or values to disconnect from fundamentals.

But … no … I’m not just talking about withdrawals of monetary stimulus as the cause of asset to crash and bubbles to pop. It’s not that low interest rates just, ultimately, “lead to” deflation (upon withdrawal of the stimulus)- low interest rates and monetary stimulus actually “causes” deflation.

Here is an even more direct and immediately occurring correlation between the addition of liquidity and monetary stimulus to an economy through low interest rates (or other monetary tools, such as quantitative easing), and deflation, where withdrawals of liquidity and ensuing corrections and popping of asset bubbles are not necessarily necessary to a deflationary result: When interest rates are low, companies borrow capital to grow; in this day and age, growth means gaining “scale”. Growth, in the modern economy, requires “scale”. “Scale” helps companies to reduce input costs, and, thus, consumer prices. Scale has become so vital to growth for two reasons: First, because of a combination of the diminished importance of locality and relationships to sales because of the ability to reach a single point of purchase for all items at all times (i.e. the lack of geographic limitations on e-commerce), which brings me to the second reason, the Internet and the need for retailers (and B2B companies) to get consumers and customers to their websites, instead of to competitors’- and then keep them there forever- and that requires heavy marketing and best prices. The companies that offers this online can destroy any competitors. So, the companies that reach the most scale the fastest, in any industry, win. Once “scale” is achieved, it is very hard for third and fourth place companies to compete. Just look at Amazon and Facebook and how they have destroyed competition in their respective spaces because they scaled the largest. “Scale” is achieved through aggressive and expansive marketing programs to attract customers, or through the use of loss leaders (without, or together with, aggressive marketing programs), to attract new customers, or through mergers and acquisitions. These actions can be funded with equity or with debt. “Scale” results in price deflation.

Companies’ sizes and large scale (along with globalized workforces) and the resulting lowest prices, allow companies in industries to depress competition, as only a select number of companies in industries obtain the scale that attracts consumers and customers- and attracts the consumers and customers that helps increase “scale”. It’s a self-fulfilling loop. Consequentially, a small number of very large companies come to control labor markets and are able to keep wages in check throughout the industries and the overall economy. Liquidity and scale cause wage inflation to get suppressed by two forces- a global workforce, and a rise in bargaining power. In the former case, pressures are dispersed, in the latter, they simply disappear with “take it or leave it” type propositions.

The Internet led to endless needs to “scale”- and scale, due to our desire for the lowest prices in exchange for a fair wage, destroyed capitalism.

These are the reasons why, despite all of the liquidity in the system for the past ten years, inflation keeps undershooting. The capital is flowing to non-traditional channels, ones not classically used to measure inflation pressures and economic risk to an economy from too much money chasing too few resources. The capital is flowing to assets, to funding loss leaders, and to marketing initiatives, resulting in bubbles, disconnects between incomes and home prices, and scale and monopoly-like companies. The Fed’s so-called “dual mandate” becomes a challenge for the Fed as it sniffs-out financial dislocations (which many feel is also part of its mandate to manage), but raising rates slowdown jobs and wage growth- which already, at least the latter, are too weak- especially in light of home prices. The Fed is hesitant to identify, or point a finger at, or provide an opinion on asset prices or “bubbles”- or target them, at least not officially. Thus, the situation does not mean that the economy is not at risk. 2007 and 2008 prove that, notwithstanding low inflation, the economy is at great risk, perhaps greater risk, from asset dislocations and bubbles than from other kinds of inflation, such as prices and wages.

In the modern economy, monetary stimulus does not flow from the Fed, to banks, to companies, to capex and investment, to employment, to wages, to higher consumer prices. It flows direct form the Fed, to banks, to real estate investors, and to businesses that invest in scale initiatives, to revenue-driven tech businesses, and to share buybacks. So, when the Fed withdraws liquidity, assets crash, yield curves invert because growth- which is from assets and low (or no) margin growth investments, rather than the way it was in days of yore, where liquidity led to inflation and to company pricing-power and the potential for prices, and, thus, stocks to rise- disappears.

This new paradigm is the cause of the so-called “conundrum”, where the Fed raises rates and people panic because assets can quickly crash, as opposed to the economy having a slow orderly decline in employment and wages while product prices remain elevated until the inflation dissipates. It’s simply a more boom and bust model, as opposed to balancing and re-balancing, where costs rise and fall to compensate and balance-out other rising and falling costs. Think of it like a see-saw. In the past, you had two equally-weighted children whose balances of power shift, as one grows and then the other grows, and one develops a strategy, and then the other a counter-strategy. But, now, the economy and liquidity has become more like a boulder being dropped on one side and then removed off by a crane, and then dropped again, and then removed again.

So, the outcome of monetary stimulus and excess liquidity is that there can be, and in the modern economy is, immediate producer and consumer price deflation, immediate wage suppression and deflation, and temporary asset inflation, followed by eventual asset deflation.

Historically, debt capital has been used for innovations, productivity, and paying for the best talent- and increased home values were a by-product of rising wages in a community (often mortgaged by local, rather than national and international, banks, or private “hard money” lenders). In the modern economy, debt capital is used for: Revenue growth at the expense of margins (temporarily, for profitable companies, and permanently, for modern-economy/technology companies that have the goal of being acquired) through marketing and loss-leaders; asset speculation; and excessive stock buybacks.

The more monetary stimulus we get, the more that asset supplies and scale grow, the lower that those asset values, product prices, and wages sink- later …

… or sooner.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

What Analysts Are Missing About The Economy- By NEIL SISKIND

Analysts are used to a business cycle ending with growing demand chasing less resources (i.e. inflation) resulting in higher interest rates, and, thus, slower growth or even recession.

Some analysts fear this process is in place, but will take a year or so to play out, provided that the Fed does not go too far, too fast.

Other analysts see no recession coming soon, or any significant slowdown at all in the near future, because their training and experience leaves them with a void in thinking. Inflation is not persistent and wages and prices (tariffs aside) may not create upward pressures enough to push the Fed onward and upward.

What these latter analysts fail to realize is that, even though GDP and earnings outlooks are solid, and inflation is low, the Fed has already made a significant dent and doesn’t need to go much higher in order to induce a slowdown. But, this an opinion; this is my opinion versus theirs’. So, let’s talk facts. On a factual basis, these analysts fail to recognize that price and/or wage inflation, or even “significant” rate hikes, do not need to occur before a slowdown can occur. In modern economies, where liquidity drives asset growth, such as trading of houses as assets, and companies use profits and debt to buy back stock instead of raising wages and creating more consumer demand, and companies use debt for acquisitions and to fund loss-leaders to gain scale- instead of for capex, any notable withdrawal of liquidity- such as we have already seen- even if such withdrawal eventually ceases (if the Fed stops hiking), is enough to sink an economy built on debt- as opposed to one that is built upon demand from growing wages, stronger consumers, and resulting higher prices by businesses with pricing power, and then higher interest rates. It just does’t work this way anymore.

Where, in the past, the withdrawal of liquidity can slow wages and prices, in the modern economy, which is a structurally weak economy, rising interest rates and removals of liquidity have a faster and deeper affect on the economy than a mere slowing of prices and wages would. Asset values and risk capital can immediately disappear as cash and bonds offer less risk with near equal returns, and as corporate and consumer debt from previously low rates and high liquidity can’t be paid back as easily, and as risk capital fast disappears because investors are not willing to buy corporate loan and debt instruments.

This is exactly what happened in 2007 and 2008. Risk capital became more costly and everyone ran for the exits on assets- because that’s where the capital flowed to.

This is why the yield curve is flattening again as the Fed remains hawkish. The yield curve is flattening because many investors believe that we are about to slow down … significantly, because liquidity is being withdrawn

The Fed has been targeting asset prices and financial instability, not wage and price growth- because there isn’t any. The Fed is getting what it wants- but it may regret what it wished for.

So, let’s talk tariffs. Higher interest rates can’t get prices lower if those higher prices are based on tariffs, rather than on demand and higher wages. So, if new tariffs are implemented, companies will earn less, or consumers will pay more, and/or demand will decline (which means companies will earn less). The Fed can’t help maintain price stability if the tariffs take hold because it’s a policy issue, not a demand issue; so, if the Fed pushes rates higher due to price inflation on consumers from tariffs, it sure would do us a world of hurt.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Is The Fed Really Fighting Inflation? Probably Not – By NEIL SISKIND

Isn’t the credit/lending bubble what the Fed is really fighting here?

The inflation concern due to low unemployment is just a red herring to prevent panic based on the truth- financial instability and bad loans. This is what is causing conflicts within the FOMC between hawks and doves and the confusion in markets about why the Fed is hiking so much with little inflation in sight? Higher wages is not wage “inflation”- in a pejorative sense. It’s o.k. for wages to rise modestly. If you can borrow money at 1% or 2% and lend to a company or for a real estate development at 7% or 8% … or in the case of consumer loans, at 12% or 14% … it’s worth the risk, and what the Fed is really scared about … as it should be, since this is what Greenspan and Bernanke missed … too many bad loans and risky behaviors. Easily-achieved yield spreads is probably why this time stocks are leading credit downward, where it is usually the opposite. The credit side is so easy to play at zero/low rates; borrow short- lend long.  It’s easier to borrow money at 2% and lend it out at 7% (especially if it’s secured, and particularly if it’s secured at a low LTV) then it is to borrow money and create equity, or make successful capital investments; seemingly, this is how investors have been seeing it … and the Fed has had enough of it. The Fed isn’t against rising prices and wages within a fair range … it’s called economic growth. What the Fed fears are unadvised loans on bad assets or to weak borrowers, and bad equity investments, all encouraged by irresistibly cheap money- with the ultimate fear, of course, being systemic risk. Credit and lending risks lead to asset bubble risks.

Watch the yield curve. It will invert in 2019- and the only thing that will cause it to re-steepen is not growth prospects- it will be the growing deficit as tax revenues decline … and then your tax rates may rise.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

As We’re Waiting On Wage Growth, Here’s The Conversation No One Sees Coming- By NEIL SISKIND

As losses on the S&P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq mount, investors and the media continue to ask, “Why?”.

So … why are these declines happening?

The declines are due to concerns about slowdowns in the economy and in earnings due to the combination of rising interest rates, elevated oil prices, rising consumer product prices due to tariffs, excessive corporate and government leverage, slowing exports, the approach of the natural end of a long business cycle, and stagnant real wages. So- there is no one reason for the declines[1]. These concerns are leading to investors selling equities and moving capital to more defensive positions, including into cash.

It’s not the lack of animal spirits in the U.S., or a lack of liquidity that are of the causes of concern about the underling economy at this time, or even over the course of the next six months, even as interest rates “normalize” and as the Fed searches for a rate it deems to be “neutral”. It’s the geopolitical policies and constraints that are being laid atop the rising target Fed funds rate (and the related interest rates) that are pressuring markets and investors to face concerns that, otherwise, would, likely, because of the fiscal stimulus, need not be addressed until mid to late 2019. Geopolitical risks are unpredictable and difficult for businesses and consumers to plan around or quantify.

Growing costs from the combination of tariffs, interest rates, and energy prices, are not new costs only for businesses– consumers’ costs have also been rising due to the same factors- and all in the face of, largely, stagnant wages- and it could begin to affect revenue growth results in Q3 and/or Q4 of 2018, and in 2019. Investors are wondering where Q3 earnings and/or Q4 guidance will fall. Investors are concerned about revenues- and about margins.

When it comes to higher costs, investors and analysts have been asking whether businesses that are experiencing higher raw materials costs will take the margin hits, or pass the costs on to consumers. They forget to discuss the third option: businesses can cut other costs, to wit, labor, to avoid either eating the margin losses or raising their prices. Hiding behind the conversation that this nation has been having about wage growth is a completely contrary conversation waiting to reveal itself- one about layoffs.

Because of the growing and new expenses for businesses and consumers with which businesses must contend, revenues and profits are at risk. What can businesses do about lower profit margins[2]?

Can businesses reduce tariffs? Of course not.

Can businesses reduce the prices of oil and gasoline[3]? No.

Can businesses have the Fed reduce its target funds rate- or can businesses make the 10-yr. Treasury yield decline? Not likely.

Here’s what businesses can do. They can cut expenses and reduce overhead- by cutting jobs.

Not only will job openings decline if revenues continue to disappoint while expenses rise- so will existing jobs. (Paradoxically, even following layoffs, the number of job openings still may not decline in a significant way. This could occur if the jobs needed to be filled are those requiring rare and special skills. Such positions can remain open even upon layoffs, and may remain open and unfilled until the skills gap narrows, which could take years.)

Everyone has been wondering for months- actually, for years- where the wage growth is. Perhaps, it’s time to begin to wonder, instead, when the job cuts will come. People have been discussing how higher labor costs would affect businesses if wages start to rise in response to low unemployment, as the Phillips curve suggests; but no one goes on to the other potential conclusion- that companies don’t have to give raises if the unemployment rate declines. The Phillips curve- if it even lives- is a concept, or a “theory” (one that, in the age of globalized work forces, and in a time where larger and larger companies dominate, if not nearly monopolize their industries, takes longer and longer to take hold)- and not a law that demands raises. One common way that wage pressures are managed by businesses- like any other costs- is to cut them- with the remaining employees forced to pick up the slack. In times of slowing-growth, labor forces are strictly scrutinized to eliminate any of the slightest redundancies. Demand destruction takes place in labor markets as in any other markets where costs rise too high to be sustained by those paying them (especially as other costs also rise, or revenues slow). Even if wages rise temporarily due to labor supply pressures, they can also be the first thing to get cut as revenues and/or earnings decline.

I’ve written in the past that there is good inflation and bad inflation- and that the “timing” of the inflation makes it one or the other. Rising wages can be good, if they are accompanied by GDP and earnings growth, but not if they are running counter to such growth patterns- and certainly not if, in addition, other input costs are rising. This latter type of scenario does not lead to raises and bonuses- it leads to layoffs. While everyone has been waiting for wage pressures to materialize, all sorts of other cost pressures have appeared. Companies cannot pass them all through to consumers- or absorb them all.

We are in a jobs bubble, one fueled by monetary and fiscal stimuli; and like a stock, or housing, or any other bubble, it eventually pops when the financial underpinnings are exposed … and usually long before it’s expected or predicted. If businesses foresee growing costs in the pipeline, or the potential for lower revenues, they have to be pro-active, and not re-active, especially in public companies, where officers’ jobs depend on profitability, and even on stock growth. Layoffs should come as no surprise as the GDP declines- as everyone anticipates. As job losses mount and demand side stimulus contracts, the slowdown is exacerbated.

Could anyone really think that if interest rates rise, and stocks fall, and housing markets slow, and trade wars and related costs grow, and GDP declines, and export markets contract, and sanctions cause higher oil and gasoline prices for consumers and companies, and government and corporate debt levels inflate- people won’t lose their jobs? Unemployment is just one more liquidity-fueled bubble, like any other liquidity-fueled bubble, which gets resolved, among other ways, by the withdrawal of liquidity by the Fed. Except in this case- it’s not only the Fed, but also the White House that will help ensure that the bubble deflates- or pops- much sooner than later.

If earnings and/or guidance over the next couple of weeks disappoint, and companies, by and large, point to rising input costs from interest rates, oil, and/or tariffs as the causes- the conversation on your television and in the markets will soon be changing from one about “waiting for wage growth”- to one about “preparing for layoffs”. This would not take place until after the holiday season, including the January “gift return and exchange” season.

If, and as the economy slows, a military standoff or conflict might arise between the U.S. and China. Military conflicts often occur in slow economic times to distract people, to rally the citizenry through patriotism, and even to create jobs. Regardless of the potential for such ulterior motives, tensions with China are on the rise and could escalate in coming months. The trade war would be a secondary cause for any military conflict, with the primary impetus being the United States’ encroachment on Asia, as the U.S. and China continue to compete behind the scenes for the soul of Kim Jong-Un and North Korea, and as U.S.-Taiwan relations expand. Kim Jong-un’s effect on world politics and global instability will rise in 2019. Russia’s location, and, thus, interests in the region will draw it into the conflict. How this will affect the U.S. economy is, of course, an unknown- and something for which investors should prepare as best as possible by watching commodities and currencies as events begin to heat up. All the pieces are in place for tensions with China to escalate in the coming months- as the trade war is taking its toll on the Chinese economy, as Kim Jong-un continues to be used as a political pawn by the U.S. and China- and as he plays both ends against the middle, and as U.S. Navy warships are flaunting their strength in the Taiwan Strait. Does this sound like a blossoming friendship to you? In general, the present administration is determined to repress China’s rise as a (or as the largest) superpower, at any cost- as we have been witnessing on the trade front.

For now, the unemployment rate and jobless claims remain low; and job openings remain high and continue to go unfilled, while the CPI, the PCE, the household savings rate, consumer spending[4], and real wages are all, basically, stagnating. Personal wealth is declining as housing and stock prices are under pressure. Household debt is at an all-time high. Company revenues and margins are under pressure in many sectors. As the U.S.’s, China’s, Japan’s, and other nations’ consumers spend less on U.S. products, how can companies’ earnings grow?

All that can really be said about consumers in terms of purchasing power is that they have jobs. This is pretty much what any and all bullishness on the consumer comes down to at this stage. As company margins get squeezed by rising interest rates, tariffs, commodities prices, and other input costs, and as revenues disappoint because of a weakening or apprehensive consumer … let’s hope that this, at least, lasts.

 

______________________

Fn

1.    Many in the financial industry suggest that, in both the U.S. and China, it has been rising interest rates, financial regulations and crackdowns (in China), and withdrawals of liquidity, that have been the primary culprits for the recent slowdowns in economic and stock market growth, with tariffs being only a small part of each nation’s respective recent problems. While rising borrowing costs clearly affect companies’ earnings and cause multiple-contraction in equities, expectations on the other side of the scale, of revenues and earnings, must decline significantly in order to see the kind of volatility and declines we have been seeing of late on the indices of both nations. As time goes by, it’s becoming increasingly clear that tariffs (on top of rising interest rates and stagnant wages) are going to cause growing economic and financial stresses for businesses and consumers, and investors are responding to these realities.

2.    There are many ways for businesses to handle rising costs, including: Finding new places to source products; re-examining and making changes to product mixes; commodities price hedging; renegotiating vendor and/or customer contracts; limiting discretionary spending; renegotiating or cancelling leases, etc.- but, all of these options can take significant time, have significant costs, and have unknown results and ramifications. Layoffs are a more immediate and predictable cost-cutting measure, and can be, relatively, easily reversed if necessary to resume growth or to repair miscalculations. Moreover, cutting labor overhead may give an employer the exact result it needs- as opposed to other cost-cutting measures.

3.    Oil prices have been heading lower, lately.

4.    Consumer spending, while up 2.3% over last year, has been up and down in recent months. Even in the “up” months, healthcare and energy prices- necessities- as opposed to luxuries and discretionary spending- have been responsible for the higher numbers. Hurricanes have also been the cause of much of the spending, such as on replacement vehicles that were damaged in storms.

________________

endnotes

1.    Remember that the monthly employment rate includes government jobs. Just as I’ve written about how the GDP includes government spending, the employment rate includes government jobs that result from government spending. So, again, the GDP can grow and the unemployment rate can decline, but there are ramifications for the national debt and the budget deficit for these positive economic results when government spending helps to feed GDP and labor force expansions. We pay for this growth.

2.    Millennials will be in for a big surprise when their idealistic views about job and career selection, demands and expectations from employers, and idealism about work environments no longer are addressed by employers, as job options diminish. Millennials’ expectations of work, such as their dreamy ideas of things like the so-called “gig economy” and quitting jobs and dropping-out of the workforce to chase passions, will be realigned in a slowdown or a recession with the reality of how difficult it is to make money, and support a family, and buy a home, and take vacations, and plan for retirement- things with which responsible adults have to deal.

3.    As economic growth slows, and unemployment rises, I’d pay attention to any “modern economy” type of industries. Crowdfunding will be decimated, as the amateur “investors” who “tinker” in highly speculative investments through these services, reign-in their excess or discretionary spending. Contrarily, the cannabis industry will likely see explosive growth, either despite, or perhaps because of a slowdown, as people seek an escape, become cynical about our economic and political systems and their own opportunities, and as states seek to grow their tax revenues.

4.    One might want to consider the implications of significant defaults on student loans should unemployment rise.

5.    In my two most recent articles, I advised- or warned- that the economy and your stocks would decline long before Wall Street says. Just look at the major stock indices, and reported revenues, and earnings guidance since the publications of those articles. Even the 10-yr. Treasury yield is off its highs.

________________________

Neil Siskind is: President of The Siskind Law Firm, focused on product investments, trademark licensing, product distribution, and real estate; Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment™, a think tank and advocate for children with absentee fathers; Founder of the global charity marketing initiative, Caring is Free®; Founder of National Fatherhood Day™; Owner & Conservator of The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve, over 8 acres of conserved waterfront land along New York’s majestic Hudson River; and author of The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products. On December 11, 2017, in his article The Yield Curve Speaketh: Why Stocks Might Crash in Early 2018, Neil Siskind accurately predicted the February, 2018 stock crash, the largest single-day point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s history. In his September 26, 2018 article, Lots of “Bull” In The Bull Market: Let’s Look At What’s “Really” Growing, Neil Siskind explained how, despite Wall Street’s bullishness, the economic data and stock market underpinnings were in decline, and that the economy and stocks were at imminent risk. By the closing of markets on October 23, 2018, the S&P 500 had fallen approximately 7%, with October being the S&P’s worst month since August 2015, the Nasdaq continues to have its worst month since 2016, and is down approximately 8% from article publication, and the DJIA is having its worst monthly performance since 2008. If you are in need of office space in South Florida, contact Neil Siskind about space availability at The Siskind Executive Office Complex in Boca Raton, FL.

Other Recent Articles by Neil S. Siskind:

Don’t Forget The Farmers- by NEIL SISKIND

Each month the United States Department of Labor releases its “nonfarm” payroll report. But what about farm payrolls? Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction, and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. This year, the average farm’s income is projected to be 35 percent below its 2013 level. According to the USDA, inflation-adjusted net farm income is forecast to decline almost 15 percent in 2018, to $65.7 billion, after increasing in 2017. There are many vital statistics and data points related to farming to be, and that are, analyzed in evaluating the state of farming and ranching in the United States. Farmers and ranchers are people, and are more than just statistics and names of monthly reports. This note does not do the topic justice and article merely as a means of reminding market watchers and investors that there are actually farmers behind the name “nonfarm payrolls”, whose situations must be considered as part of any analysis of the overall U.S. economy.