Whistling Past The Fed- By NEIL SISKIND

“The big miss” following the last Powell speech was by the public – not by the Fed. People spent so much time trying to decipher Chairman Powell (some getting him right, some getting him wrong) that they ignored his clear statement that, regardless of whether there are future hikes, the “hikes to date” have not yet fully hit the economy. So, while investors want to know if there will be future Fed hikes that would hit company margins, or compress stock multiples, or encourage investment alternatives (such as cash or Treasuries), they overlook that it will be growth and earnings that will be the primary catalysts for weaker stocks from what the Fed has already done! Earnings, ultimately, are the primary drivers of stock prices. Investors should worry less about if future hikes will happen than what existing hikes will cause. If they focus on the former, they may overlook the perils ahead from the latter. Even if you think the Fed turned dovish, it doesn’t mean that growth and earnings won’t be declining further- which would mean that stock prices are too high, regardless of what the Fed does next … because of what its already done.

If you want to see if and how Fed hikes will affect your stocks- best to look at the ones they’ve already done- and what those will do.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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If China Changes, Then “I” Will Change- by NEIL SISKIND

China says that it may be trying to change, by softening its ambitions.

I’ll believe it when I see it- but if China does stop with the 16th century polices of protectionism, and espionage, and stealing Intellectual Property, and homogenization of its economy, and state capitalism, then I believe that the Trump administration would stop its war on China.

Why not?

America is willing to compete. We just want a fair fight. We want China to operate like the rest of the modern world and like it is part of the 21st century, and as if its part of a global economy.

If China changes, the Trump administration would change … and my opinion of the U.S. economy would change with a more upbeat view of the future, notwithstanding the Fed, and the deficit, and the end of an economic cycle. I would still have a whole host of concerns and beliefs about economic risks and downturns- but if the east vs. west theme abates- for real … I would feel much better about the future.

I’m dubious, however … especially on the idea of China’s state capitalism business model ever changing.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

Synchronized Global Slowth- By NEIL SISKIND

At some point in 2017, the phrase “synchronized global growth” entered into the daily dialogue about the economy and stock market. The phrase was meant to indicate that the United States, Europe, Asia, and emerging and developed markets around the world, flush with liquidity, were all on a growth trajectory.

But, this synchronized growth never really happened. China was already executing on a plan to reduce leverage and remove systemic risk, Europe had structural problems, such as in Italy, and political problems, such as with the U.K. In the United States, the Fed became determined to raise interest rates and deleverage its own balance sheet through quantitative tightening.

On top of these conditions, a trade dispute between the U.S. and China was brewing.

In 2018, China began to slow, which caused emerging markets that depend on China, such as South Korea, to slow, in kind. As the Fed raised interest rates, emerging market debt became more costly and dollars became more scarce.

Rising rates in the U.S. and in China caused housing slowdowns in these nations.

Synchronized growth turned into a synchronized slowdown of many nations and stock markets in 2018- mostly due to the action of the Fed. The U.S. joined the slowdown fray in late 2018.

What was alleged or hoped to be “synchronized global growth” turned into “synchronized global slowth™”.

____________________________________________

Synchronized Global Slowth is trademark of Neil Siskind for the category of business and financial counsel and advice, and related services.

Neil-Siskind-lawyer-picture

The Big Miss On The Fed- By NEIL SISKIND

“The big miss” was by the public – not by the Fed. People spent so much time trying to decipher Chairman Powell (some getting him right, some getting him wrong) that they ignored his clear statement that, regardless of whether there are future hikes, the “hikes to date” have not yet fully hit the economy. So, while investors want to know if there will be future Fed hikes that would hit company margins, or compress stock multiples, or encourage investment alternatives (such as cash or Treasuries), they overlook that it will be growth and earnings that will be the primary catalysts for weaker stocks from what the Fed has already done! Earnings, ultimately, are the primary drivers of stock prices. Investors should worry less about if future hikes will happen than what existing hikes will cause. If they focus on the former, they may overlook the perils ahead from the latter. Even if you think the Fed turned dovish, it doesn’t mean that growth and earnings won’t be declining further- which would mean that stock prices are too high, regardless of what the Fed does next … because of what its already done.

If you want to see if and how Fed hikes will affect your stocks- best to look at the ones they’ve already done- and what those will do.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Do Low Interest Rates And Excess Liquidity Actually Cause “De-flation”, Rather Than “In-flation”?- By NEIL SISKIND

Low interest rates and excess liquidity lead to excessive borrowing by real estate developers. More units- especially condominium units- are built. This leads to more supply, and, eventually, due to principle of supply and demand, lower values, lower sales prices, and lower rents. It may take some time and the withdrawal of liquidity until that occurs. One may argue that it is, therefore, the withdrawal of liquidity, and, thus, the lack of liquidity, and not liquidity itself, that causes the deflation. Perhaps- but it is the liquidity and fiscal stimulus, itself, that creates the environment and the supply that is necessary for the subsequent deflation upon a withdrawal of stimulus. Thus, liquidity is a primary component, and cause of, deflation. Excessive liquidity forces imbalances upward, which, sooner or later, result in imbalances to the downside when the buyers disappear, while the assets remaining in existence.

This process applies to all hard assets which experience growth in value as the result of the investment of capital derived from excess liquidity that causes supplies to rise beyond demand, and/or values to disconnect from fundamentals.

But … no … I’m not just talking about withdrawals of monetary stimulus as the cause of asset to crash and bubbles to pop. It’s not that low interest rates just, ultimately, “lead to” deflation (upon withdrawal of the stimulus)- low interest rates and monetary stimulus actually “causes” deflation.

Here is an even more direct and immediately occurring correlation between the addition of liquidity and monetary stimulus to an economy through low interest rates (or other monetary tools, such as quantitative easing), and deflation, where withdrawals of liquidity and ensuing corrections and popping of asset bubbles are not necessarily necessary to a deflationary result: When interest rates are low, companies borrow capital to grow; in this day and age, growth means gaining “scale”. Growth, in the modern economy, requires “scale”. “Scale” helps companies to reduce input costs, and, thus, consumer prices. Scale has become so vital to growth for two reasons: First, because of a combination of the diminished importance of locality and relationships to sales because of the ability to reach a single point of purchase for all items at all times (i.e. the lack of geographic limitations on e-commerce), which brings me to the second reason, the Internet and the need for retailers (and B2B companies) to get consumers and customers to their websites, instead of to competitors’- and then keep them there forever- and that requires heavy marketing and best prices. The companies that offers this online can destroy any competitors. So, the companies that reach the most scale the fastest, in any industry, win. Once “scale” is achieved, it is very hard for third and fourth place companies to compete. Just look at Amazon and Facebook and how they have destroyed competition in their respective spaces because they scaled the largest. “Scale” is achieved through aggressive and expansive marketing programs to attract customers, or through the use of loss leaders (without, or together with, aggressive marketing programs), to attract new customers, or through mergers and acquisitions. These actions can be funded with equity or with debt. “Scale” results in price deflation.

Companies’ sizes and large scale (along with globalized workforces) and the resulting lowest prices, allow companies in industries to depress competition, as only a select number of companies in industries obtain the scale that attracts consumers and customers- and attracts the consumers and customers that helps increase “scale”. It’s a self-fulfilling loop. Consequentially, a small number of very large companies come to control labor markets and are able to keep wages in check throughout the industries and the overall economy. Liquidity and scale cause wage inflation to get suppressed by two forces- a global workforce, and a rise in bargaining power. In the former case, pressures are dispersed, in the latter, they simply disappear with “take it or leave it” type propositions.

The Internet led to endless needs to “scale”- and scale, due to our desire for the lowest prices in exchange for a fair wage, destroyed capitalism.

These are the reasons why, despite all of the liquidity in the system for the past ten years, inflation keeps undershooting. The capital is flowing to non-traditional channels, ones not classically used to measure inflation pressures and economic risk to an economy from too much money chasing too few resources. The capital is flowing to assets, to funding loss leaders, and to marketing initiatives, resulting in bubbles, disconnects between incomes and home prices, and scale and monopoly-like companies. The Fed’s so-called “dual mandate” becomes a challenge for the Fed as it sniffs-out financial dislocations (which many feel is also part of its mandate to manage), but raising rates slowdown jobs and wage growth- which already, at least the latter, are too weak- especially in light of home prices. The Fed is hesitant to identify, or point a finger at, or provide an opinion on asset prices or “bubbles”- or target them, at least not officially. Thus, the situation does not mean that the economy is not at risk. 2007 and 2008 prove that, notwithstanding low inflation, the economy is at great risk, perhaps greater risk, from asset dislocations and bubbles than from other kinds of inflation, such as prices and wages.

In the modern economy, monetary stimulus does not flow from the Fed, to banks, to companies, to capex and investment, to employment, to wages, to higher consumer prices. It flows direct form the Fed, to banks, to real estate investors, and to businesses that invest in scale initiatives, to revenue-driven tech businesses, and to share buybacks. So, when the Fed withdraws liquidity, assets crash, yield curves invert because growth- which is from assets and low (or no) margin growth investments, rather than the way it was in days of yore, where liquidity led to inflation and to company pricing-power and the potential for prices, and, thus, stocks to rise- disappears.

This new paradigm is the cause of the so-called “conundrum”, where the Fed raises rates and people panic because assets can quickly crash, as opposed to the economy having a slow orderly decline in employment and wages while product prices remain elevated until the inflation dissipates. It’s simply a more boom and bust model, as opposed to balancing and re-balancing, where costs rise and fall to compensate and balance-out other rising and falling costs. Think of it like a see-saw. In the past, you had two equally-weighted children whose balances of power shift, as one grows and then the other grows, and one develops a strategy, and then the other a counter-strategy. But, now, the economy and liquidity has become more like a boulder being dropped on one side and then removed off by a crane, and then dropped again, and then removed again.

So, the outcome of monetary stimulus and excess liquidity is that there can be, and in the modern economy is, immediate producer and consumer price deflation, immediate wage suppression and deflation, and temporary asset inflation, followed by eventual asset deflation.

Historically, debt capital has been used for innovations, productivity, and paying for the best talent- and increased home values were a by-product of rising wages in a community (often mortgaged by local, rather than national and international, banks, or private “hard money” lenders). In the modern economy, debt capital is used for: Revenue growth at the expense of margins (temporarily, for profitable companies, and permanently, for modern-economy/technology companies that have the goal of being acquired) through marketing and loss-leaders; asset speculation; and excessive stock buybacks.

The more monetary stimulus we get, the more that asset supplies and scale grow, the lower that those asset values, product prices, and wages sink- later …

… or sooner.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

President Trump To President Xi: Mr. Xi, Tear Down This Chinese Wall- By NEIL SISKIND

People who are hoping for, or contemplating, or expecting a U.S. trade deal with China at the upcoming G20 (or anytime soon thereafter) are really not paying attention. They are caught-up in how the NAFTA-USMCA process went, and they are caught up in President Trump’s own language and bravado about his negotiating skills.

The U.S.-China situation is different than any other deal or circumstance.

Donald Trump didn’t become president just so that he could tweak some trade deals, pass some tax cuts, and then head home. Trump- like any other man- perhaps more than many other men- wants to effect change. He wants to have a real and valuable impact on history- like any president does. In Trump’s case, it’s a valuable impact on American history that he desires, more so than on world history (though the former, necessarily, causes the latter).

President Trump will not be content to just return to his apartment on Fifth Avenue in a few years and go back to yelling at CNN through his television screen as he drinks champagne cocktails and imagines the kind of country in which he wished he lived. This is his chance to make America the way he wants it. No man- and certainly not Donald Trump- would squander that opportunity.

The Trump-Bannon doctrine in relation to China is that it’s east vs. west, and us vs. them. This is a battle over who will control the world in the 21st century.

So, what does President Trump want?

President Trump wants a strong economy. But, more than that, he wants a great legacy. He wants to be the man who made America great (again). Going long of Donald Trump’s ego is a trade on which one will never lose money.

President Trump wants power and influence over North Korea and that valuable real estate (for America, not for himself), he wants to limit China’s economic and political colonization of countries in Asia and Africa, he wants fair and honest environmental, labor, and Intellectual Property laws and practices in China, and he wants a China that plays by the same rules as the rest of us. Trump wants China’s mercantilism, with it’s negative effect on U.S. labor, and China’s use of it to grow into a world power at our expense, to end; and he wants U.S. companies and investors to have the same access to China’s markets and assets as Chinese companies and investors have had in the United States.

The Trump administration is looking more and more like the Reagan administration, with many of the same Republican players, a creation of the media at the helm, low taxes, big deficits, a cold war environment with some occasional military chest-thumping, a peace through strength attitude, and a determination to defeat communism and totalitarianism and restore America to its glory as the world’s leader, in all respects. President Trump, with regard to China, is mirroring and attempting to emulate President Reagan in how he successfully pushed the Soviet Union to the brink by forcing it to spend itself into submission, while growing the U.S. economy as large as possible. Reagan wasn’t looking to sell the Soviets more products- he was looking to remove the Soviet Union as a threat to U.S. values, and security, and power. Why would you think that President Trump wants anything less?

There will be no trade deal (though the new tariffs scheduled to take effect in the new year could be temporarily delayed, pending a resolution). Steve Bannon and Jack Ma probably have it right when they suggest that we are at the beginning of a generational conflict without clearly delineated battle or finish lines, or time frames. As tensions rise between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea, over Taiwan, over North Korea, and in the global economy, the trade dispute is but a mere symptom of (and, perhaps, a mere red herring for) a growing U.S.-China power struggle for world dominance- and President Trump isn’t going to settle for anything less than a total win (or, at least, the establishment of a clear path for future victory)- which will require China to change its economic and legal structures, its behaviors, beliefs, strategies, and even its ambitions and time frames.

President Trump’s message to President Xi:

Mr. Xi: Tear-down-this-Chinese-wall!

 

 

________________________

endnotes

  1. China’s most recent PMI report was in-line with expectations. It was, actually, very likely, much lower than forecast, but revised higher by the Chinese government. China is, no doubt, loath to arrive at this G20 and negotiations with President Trump appearing to be in any more of a desperate condition than has already been made known.
  2. China will never cave to one demand of the United States, in particular: That China not provide subsidies to its state-owned enterprises. This practice goes to the essence and to the very core of China’s modus operandi.
  3. Any “framework” or agreement to talk further that comes out of the G20 meeting between the U.S. and China would not be helpful to markets, as such a vague result will not allow companies to properly plan-out their manufacturing businesses or allow non-manufacturers to have complete visibility into their future operations costs. Markets and businesses need some level of certainty, and a mere “framework” for further talks will not provide that.
  4. Update: As I expected, no trade agreement was reached at the G20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Jinping. President Trump’s decision to delay implementation of the new tariffs, with very little quid pro quo from China for his forbearance, is an indication that Trump is very concerned about the potential economic impacts of tariffs as the U.S. economy is slowing. Whether President Trump will see-through his plan for new tariffs remains to be seen- in about 90 days. Regardless, no trade deal with China will ever be made containing anything less than all, or most, of the Trump administration’s demands- a deal that China is highly unlikely to do. Whether the new tariffs are levied or not when it becomes clear that no trade agreement is possible, the relationship between the two nations will deteriorate from there. There are many other legal measures beyond the levying of tariffs that the U.S. can take to interfere with and challenge China’s global activities, and there are many other ways for the U.S. and China to clash in and around the world.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

Fed Speak Today- Why Hike?- By NEIL SISKIND

The Fed made it plain today that they adhere to the dual mandate, and even as inflation is barely 2%, labor markets are tight. So, instead of letting wages and the consumer get any stronger, they want to increase business debt costs- while hoping for lower revenues. Further, they also want to increase consumers’ debt costs- but not their wages. All this while stocks and housing are crashing- and while tariffs may send business and consumer costs higher- and while making clear they have no concern over debt and asset bubbles- they just want wages in check, no matter what.

Interest rate hikes should not prevent wages from rising “at all”. Incomes in America are allowed to rise, I think.

 

China & The G20: Some People Are Way-Underestimating Trump’s Ambition- By NEIL SISKIND

People who are hoping for, or contemplating, or expecting a U.S. trade deal with China at the upcoming G20 (or anytime soon thereafter) are really not paying attention. They are caught-up in how the NAFTA-USMCA process went, and they are caught up in President Trump’s own language and bravado about his negotiating skills.

The U.S.-China situation is different than any other deal or circumstance.

Donald Trump didn’t become president just so that he could tweak some trade deals, pass some tax cuts, and then head home. Trump- like any other man- perhaps more than many other men- wants to effect change. He wants to have a real and valuable impact on history- like any president does. In Trump’s case, it’s a valuable impact on American history that he desires, more so than on world history (though the former, necessarily, causes the latter).

President Trump will not be content to just return to his apartment on Fifth Avenue in a few years and go back to yelling at CNN through his television screen as he drinks champagne cocktails and imagines the kind of country in which he wished he lived. This is his chance to make America the way he wants it. No man- and certainly not Donald Trump- would squander that opportunity.

The Trump-Bannon doctrine in relation to China is that it’s east vs. west, and us vs. them. This is a battle over who will control the world in the 21st century.

So, what does President Trump want?

President Trump wants a strong economy. But, more than that, he wants a great legacy. He wants to be the man who made America great (again). Going long of Donald Trump’s ego is a trade on which one will never lose money.

President Trump wants power and influence over North Korea and that valuable real estate (for America, not for himself), he wants to limit China’s economic and political colonization of countries in Asia and Africa, he wants fair and honest environmental, labor, and Intellectual Property laws and practices in China, and he wants a China that plays by the same rules as the rest of us. Trump wants China’s mercantilism, with it’s negative effect on U.S. labor, and China’s use of it to grow into a world power at our expense, to end; and he wants U.S. companies and investors to have the same access to China’s markets and assets as Chinese companies and investors have had in the United States.

The Trump administration is looking more and more like the Reagan administration, with many of the same Republican players, a creation of the media at the helm, low taxes, big deficits, a cold war environment with some occasional military chest-thumping, a peace through strength attitude, and a determination to defeat communism and totalitarianism and restore America to its glory as the world’s leader, in all respects. President Trump, with regard to China, is mirroring and attempting to emulate President Reagan in how he successfully pushed the Soviet Union to the brink by forcing it to spend itself into submission, while growing the U.S. economy as large as possible. Reagan wasn’t looking to sell the Soviets more products- he was looking to remove the Soviet Union as a threat to U.S. values, and security, and power. Why would you think that President Trump wants anything less?

There will be no trade deal (though the new tariffs scheduled to take effect in the new year could be temporarily delayed, pending a resolution). Steve Bannon and Jack Ma probably have it right when they suggest that we are at the beginning of a generational conflict without clearly delineated battle or finish lines, or time frames. As tensions rise between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea, over Taiwan, over North Korea, and in the global economy, the trade dispute is but a mere symptom of (and, perhaps, a mere red herring for) a growing U.S.-China power struggle for world dominance- and President Trump isn’t going to settle for anything less than a total win (or, at least, the establishment of a clear path for future victory)- which will require China to change its economic and legal structures, its behaviors, beliefs, strategies, and even its ambitions and time frames.

President Trump’s message to President Xi:

Mr. Xi: Tear-down-this-Chinese-wall!

 

 

________________________

endnotes

  1. China’s most recent PMI report was in-line with expectations. It was, actually, very likely, much lower than forecast, but revised higher by the Chinese government. China is, no doubt, loath to arrive at this G20 and negotiations with President Trump appearing to be in any more of a desperate condition than has already been made known.
  2. China will never cave to one demand of the United States, in particular: That China not provide subsidies to its state-owned enterprises. This practice goes to the essence and to the very core of China’s modus operandi.
  3. Any “framework” or agreement to talk further that comes out of the G20 meeting between the U.S. and China would not be helpful to markets, as such a vague result will not allow companies to properly plan-out their manufacturing businesses or allow non-manufacturers to have complete visibility into their future operations costs. Markets and businesses need some level of certainty, and a mere “framework” for further talks will not provide that.
  4. Update: As I expected, no trade agreement was reached at the G20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Jinping. President Trump’s decision to delay implementation of the new tariffs, with very little quid pro quo from China for his forbearance, is an indication that Trump is very concerned about the potential economic impacts of tariffs as the U.S. economy is slowing. Whether President Trump will see-through his plan for new tariffs remains to be seen- in about 90 days. Regardless, no trade deal with China will ever be made containing anything less than all, or most, of the Trump administration’s demands- a deal that China is highly unlikely to do. Whether the new tariffs are levied or not when it becomes clear that no trade agreement is possible, the relationship between the two nations will deteriorate from there. There are many other legal measures beyond the levying of tariffs that the U.S. can take to interfere with and challenge China’s global activities, and there are many other ways for the U.S. and China to clash in and around the world.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

 

What Analysts Are Missing About The Economy- By NEIL SISKIND

Analysts are used to a business cycle ending with growing demand chasing less resources (i.e. inflation) resulting in higher interest rates, and, thus, slower growth or even recession.

Some analysts fear this process is in place, but will take a year or so to play out, provided that the Fed does not go too far, too fast.

Other analysts see no recession coming soon, or any significant slowdown at all in the near future, because their training and experience leaves them with a void in thinking. Inflation is not persistent and wages and prices (tariffs aside) may not create upward pressures enough to push the Fed onward and upward.

What these latter analysts fail to realize is that, even though GDP and earnings outlooks are solid, and inflation is low, the Fed has already made a significant dent and doesn’t need to go much higher in order to induce a slowdown. But, this an opinion; this is my opinion versus theirs’. So, let’s talk facts. On a factual basis, these analysts fail to recognize that price and/or wage inflation, or even “significant” rate hikes, do not need to occur before a slowdown can occur. In modern economies, where liquidity drives asset growth, such as trading of houses as assets, and companies use profits and debt to buy back stock instead of raising wages and creating more consumer demand, and companies use debt for acquisitions and to fund loss-leaders to gain scale- instead of for capex, any notable withdrawal of liquidity- such as we have already seen- even if such withdrawal eventually ceases (if the Fed stops hiking), is enough to sink an economy built on debt- as opposed to one that is built upon demand from growing wages, stronger consumers, and resulting higher prices by businesses with pricing power, and then higher interest rates. It just does’t work this way anymore.

Where, in the past, the withdrawal of liquidity can slow wages and prices, in the modern economy, which is a structurally weak economy, rising interest rates and removals of liquidity have a faster and deeper affect on the economy than a mere slowing of prices and wages would. Asset values and risk capital can immediately disappear as cash and bonds offer less risk with near equal returns, and as corporate and consumer debt from previously low rates and high liquidity can’t be paid back as easily, and as risk capital fast disappears because investors are not willing to buy corporate loan and debt instruments.

This is exactly what happened in 2007 and 2008. Risk capital became more costly and everyone ran for the exits on assets- because that’s where the capital flowed to.

This is why the yield curve is flattening again as the Fed remains hawkish. The yield curve is flattening because many investors believe that we are about to slow down … significantly, because liquidity is being withdrawn

The Fed has been targeting asset prices and financial instability, not wage and price growth- because there isn’t any. The Fed is getting what it wants- but it may regret what it wished for.

So, let’s talk tariffs. Higher interest rates can’t get prices lower if those higher prices are based on tariffs, rather than on demand and higher wages. So, if new tariffs are implemented, companies will earn less, or consumers will pay more, and/or demand will decline (which means companies will earn less). The Fed can’t help maintain price stability if the tariffs take hold because it’s a policy issue, not a demand issue; so, if the Fed pushes rates higher due to price inflation on consumers from tariffs, it sure would do us a world of hurt.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

Lies In The Media About Snapchat 

Snap, like Twitter, has spent less time and resources to get more and more users, and has decided to make more money from existing customers- like any other smart business would do.

Unlike the claims in the fake news from the financial media, Snap isn’t trying to get more revenues from customers because they have lost customers. Snap has chosen to have less customers and make more money … instead of being like Facebook and just growing users and fake accounts and bad actors on its platform just so it can say it is growing- and then sell advertisers on fake or questionable data.

Gee- they’re actually trying to run a clean, profitable, honest business … what do ya know …?