George Washington’s Connection To The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

Adolphus Philipse, son of a wealthy owner, Frederick Philipse, who emigrated to New York (then, New Netherlands) from The Netherlands, purchased a large track of land in 1697 from Dutch traders (who bought it from several Wiccopee chiefs), which land was Royally sanctioned as the Highland Patent. Subsequently known as the Philipse Patent, upon Adolphus’ death, the land passed to his nephew Frederick Philipse II. Upon Frederick II’s death in 1751, the land passed to Frederick II’s son, Philip Philipse, and his three daughters, one of whom was Mary Philipse (married to British Colonel, Roger Morris), who is believed to have lived with George Washington during the Revolutionary War and with whom she is believed to have engaged in an affair, as described in the new novel, George and Mary (Washington’s wife was living in Virginia for her safety).

Following the end of the Revolutionary War, New York state seized all of the Philipse family’s land holdings, including the Philipse Patent, because Frederick III, Mary’s brother, sided with the British and left New York for England in 1783- even though Frederick III was not an owner of any of the Philipse Patent land. The land was auctioned-off and divided in 200 parcels, all of which, together, formed modern day Putnam County. Philipstown is, of course, named after the Philipse family.

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve comprises over 8 acres of the waterfront portion of the Philipse family’s former land known as the Philipse Patent.

 

 

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Another Beautiful Hike At The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve, 2/17/19

A great shot of the preserve from the Bear Mountain Bridge yesterday. A cold and icy hike- but the sun was shining. Lots of wild animal footprints in the snow, but we never caught up with anything (maybe that’s a good thing). Looking forward to the next hike being in spring- with lots more green!

npreserve-feb

Large Companies Are Good For Large Companies- Unless … By NEIL SISKIND

As companies in all industries grow larger and larger as their need for scale is greater and greater, and as margins and consumer incomes go lower and lower (or stay stuck), customers suffer from less and less customer service and lower and lower levels customer care.

Smaller companies are put out of business by the large companies, leaving consumers little choice.

Consumers patronize large companies because they often offer lower prices- often along with worse service.

Largeness of companies benefits those large companies- but, not consumers, unless they offer consumers lower prices- and this is not always the case.

For example, real estate brokerages are growing larger and larger as the large companies absorb local agencies. How does this benefit the consumer?

It doesn’t. The scale has not reduced the commission rates- or offered better service.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
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Neil Siskind’s Poetry

Unforeseeable Betrayal

With the fire and ire of a despot in power,
your strength denied the length of the ultimate hour.
You planted seeds filled with deeds for the loyal to sour;
and clear thinking, your secret disdain did devour … as the might of your flaws forced your judgment to cower.

Too much trust often thrust on those seemingly real,
in dark corners, concealed from adorers, are the places they steal,
eventually, what’s expected to be, replaced by bravado and zeal,
with the consequence being how a preponderance of victims would feel.

Banished to Elba and trapped in a cell,
like a tyrant who’s captured and in isolation’s hell;
no, not you, my sweet, ‘tis how, in defeat, my broken spirit does dwell-
while you once seemed omnipotent, your character is impotent- in so far as I can tell.

Be gone, for the soreness of an angry mob comes,
as you violate trust and as your morality numbs,
in my eyes, what survives, are just your character’s crumbs;
far away seem the days you appeared as the sun … now eclipsed by your choices that can’t be undone.

The Reason That “Snap” Keeps Snapping Along- By: NEIL SISKIND

As executive turnover at Snaps continues in a concerning way, revenues are rising, active user numbers are stabilizing, youth use is growing, losses are narrowing, and an android design is expanding.

So, ask yourself: What is the one constant at Snap as it’s numbers in all categories continue to improve?

Even Spiegel. [1]

The more the numbers improve, the greater the likelihood that Snap is acquired by a large media or technology company- especially as it convinces the market that it is not competing with Instagram and offers so much more in the way of  unique services and innovations for users.

_______________________________________

fn

[1]. Ask yourself: As Facebook goes from the accusation of the initial idea for Facebook being ripped-off, to the accusation of it ripping-off Snap’s ideas, to the accusations of misappropriating user date, what is the one constant at Facebook through it all:

Mark Zuckerberg

Trademarks: Nice Try, Mazda- by NEIL SISKIND

Generally, trademarks are established and protected in either (or both) of two ways: (i) Through actual and uninterrupted use; and/or (ii) through registration with the USPTO.

Irrespective of the way that one goes about attempting to establish and claim exclusive rights to a trademark, the “mark” has to be “protectable”- meaning that it has to be unique (and, of course, not in use by some other person or company). The use of everyday words and phrases, by and large, won’t pass the test.

Moreover, the word or phrase on which trademark rights are being claimed must actually be regularly used in connection with a product or service. One can’t just claim a trademark, but then never actually use it as a trademark, and still be able to maintain the rights to that trademark.

More and more, companies are making television commercials where they are attempting to claim exclusive trademark rights to commonly-used words or phrases by placing the trademark notice “TM” next to that word or phrase to ensure that no other company can use such word or phrase to sell the same or similar products.

Here’s an example:

In a recent Mazda commercial, at the end of the commercial, the following phrase appears on the screen:

“Feel Alive”

Next to the phrase, there is a “TM” to indicate that Mazda is attempting to establish the phrase as its exclusive trademark for the sale of cars, with such phrase to be used exclusively by Mazda. This would mean that no other car company can say or write “feel alive” when talking about or trying to sell its cars … which, of course, is ridiculous- and such trademark would not be enforceable if Mazda challenged another car company’s use of this phrase.

The “TM” or “poor man’s trademark” is very useful if a trademark is protectable- but, it’s not magical, and can’t turn an unprotectable word or phrase into such.

The one great thing about this method of establishing a trademark is that it makes a costly and complicated concept- establishing and protecting trademarks- into a simple, cost-free task. You can’t say that too often about IP … or about the law, in general.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

 

Is Jay Powell Doing An Incredible Job As Fed Chairman?- By NEIL SISKIND

Well, only history can really answer this. But, so far- the answer appears to be “yes”.

The Fed has effectively telegraphed each Fed hike. The market was always ready for what it got.

While many accuse the Fed of wavering and vacillating in past months, I say the opposite. The Fed has effectively telegraphed its slow move towards the end of the hiking cycle. The market has never misjudged where the Fed was headed.

True, that in October, 2018, the market was caught-off-guard with a hawkish comment regarding the neutral rate. But, it was not that the market found the Fed to be “surprisingly” hawkish- it was that the market found the Fed to be “excessively” hawkish.

So, while the Fed has been a bit too hawkish in tone for the market’s taste, it has (yet) to have been too hawkish in action (again, history will determine). Anyway, who can account for taste?

And now, the market and the Fed appear to be on the same page.

The U.S. economy is solid, housing prices are coming into better alignment with incomes and risk is being removed from housing markets, tighter credit is muting risky behaviors, and stock valuations are a bit more sensible.

What has Chairman Powell done wrong?

Nothing that I can see (yet).

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

The Yield Curve Is “Lying”, And Fools Are “Buying”- by NEIL SISKIND

pikes2

Since widening at the end of 2018, yields on corporate bonds are again narrowing.

Some believe that, since credit usually leads equities and the economy, when there’s a divergence between the performances of credit and equities, like now, credit markets are right and stocks are wrong about the economy.

Here’s the deal:

Investors who are concerned about growth and equities would often flee to the safety of Treasuries. But that debt is now offering little yield- while also providing duration risk due to quantitative tightening and funding of the national debt.

So, there are good reasons to not own Treasuries with duration.

As a second option, investors are buying corporate debt, where they see debt, in general, as less risky than equities and as somewhere they can obtain yield.

Thus, if you’re using narrowing spreads as an economic indicator, to show that the economy is strong, you’d be wrong. In their blind and desperate searches for yield, investors are disregarding risk.

If your waiting for the yield curve to invert to prove a forthcoming recession, you’d also be wrong. There is too much government intervention in fixed income markets, compounded by investors’ fears of such government intervention eating principle. Thus, the yield curve may never invert before the next recession- meaning that the yield curve, like corporate bonds, are faking you out.

For, perhaps, the first time, investors can’t rely on bonds and credit to tell them where the economy is going. Stocks may be a better indicator this time. Yes- this time it may be different.

Corporate credit spreads will widen … one day … suddenly … as investors flee to cash, and as economic weakness grows- and the yield curve may have never properly warned anyone.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

The Real Evil Of Globalization

Globalization is destroying America- but, maybe, not quite how you think.

The usual attack on globalization is that it sends jobs- American jobs- manufacturing and services- to other countries; and the attacks are valid- though there are proponents of globalization who can show the benefits of it.

But, globalization causes prices to go lower and lower, as people who are willing to work for less and less, are located.

As prices go down, volume, over margin, becomes vital. Volume requires scale. As companies scale, small companies- and any potential newcomers to an industry- die.

Monopolies, or effective monopolies, or duopolies, form, pushing prices (and wages) downward.

As a result, competition, and entrepreneurship, decline. It just becomes way too hard and way too expensive to compete in an industry, or to acquire new customers, or to launch a new product- or to develop one to sell to the few remaining distribution outlets- or to fight any knock-offs by large companies in court.

America will soon be comprised only of many large companies … and their employees. There will be room for some small businesses that compete on service … which means business owners will have to work day and night – on a greater level than ever- to stay independent. And the key tasks for employees of large companies will be routine tasks (such as customer service) and back-end technological work.

In other words- a nation of large companies, boring jobs, and boring people with self driving cars, moving sidewalks, silver jumpsuits we all will wear- and a robotic existence.

Entrepreneurship and the American spirit will be ruined by “scale”.

All of this due to companies- and consumers- seeking the lowest prices (a/k/a a race to the bottom).

Neil-Siskind-lawyer-picture

The Shifted Path of Capital Principle- by NEIL SISKIND

I’ve developed the economic principle, “The Shifted Path of Capital Principle”, to explain that, in the modern U.S. economy, capital often flows from the Fed, to banks, and then directly into assets (as opposed to moving from the Fed, to banks, and into the broader economy through investments by businesses in their respective operations, as in prior U.S. economies and eras), which leads to potentially dangerous asset inflation, without more general economy-wide inflation, and even with economy-wide deflation, due, also, in part, to the shifted path of capital.

In the old economy (or, the Industrial and Post-Industrial Eras), assets, such as homes and stocks, were beneficiaries of industry and inventiveness, hard work, and prosperity. These factors, or characteristics, led to earnings growth for companies, and wage growth and income growth for employees and executives, and, in turn, led to higher stock prices for companies and rising home demand from, and rising home prices for, employees and consumers. This path of capital, from business investment and growth outward to the larger economy, also led to higher product prices, as demand grew, and as U.S. labor was finite. Eventually, inflation set-in, interest rates increased, and the economy slowed. Stock prices would reflect earnings declines (or earnings growth, if company pricing-power permitted for price increases to outpace inflation), and home prices would level-off or decline as interest rates rose and as demand slowed. Eventually, as interest rates declined, a new up-cycle in the economy would begin.

In the modern economy (or, the digital economy), dollars flow more directly from the Fed into assets. Dollars flow directly from the Fed to banks, and then into homes which are used by investors as generators of income and profit, rather than as places to live as the result of employment, income growth, and economic prosperity, as has, historically, been the norm. Houses and apartments become trading vehicles and short-term income generators. On the equities side, dollar denominated debt is incurred by companies to buy their own company stock to push up the price and their EPS. This flow of debt capital directly into stocks- instead of into companies’ operations, where it leads to earnings growth through productivity, ingenuity, and capex, resulting in sales, pricing power, and stock price growth- works to “directly” (rather than through a more indirect “trickle through”) and, some might say, “artificially”, cause stock prices to rise, irrespective of any growth in earnings, or even in revenues.

At the same time as inexpensive debt capital is being used by businesses and investors to inflate assets, it’s also being used by businesses to deflate prices and wages.

The combination of cheap debt and a higher stock price is used by companies to increase “scale” through heightened marketing and acquisitions. The scale allows for lower input costs, and, thus, lower consumer prices, and lower wages as competition declines. The scale provides for higher profits, due to a greater industry presence and more revenues driven by size and low prices, and fewer competitors. Big companies grow bigger, and small competitors have lesser and lesser abilities to compete because technology causes consumers to care less about location, convenience, and relationship than about price, alone.

All of the above, taken together, means that the path of capital leads to less price and wage inflation, and more investment-oriented, or even risk-oriented uses of capital. Asset and debt inflation displace price and wage inflation, as capital flows directly from the Fed to banks, and from banks to assets- instead of into capex, innovation, productivity, and wage growth.

In the modern economy, a mature economic cycle means less price and wage pressures, and more asset bubbles and financial imbalances from misallocations of cheap credit. As the Fed looks at accepted economic indicators to evaluate inflationary pressures, it misreads signals to indicate a low level of economic risk (because of low price inflation), and then keeps rates too low for too long, as asset imbalances grow- until it’s too late to ease-out of the situation or achieve a soft landing.

Flat and inverted yield curves are misread to only reflect low inflation expectations (including misreading flat and inverted curves to reflect low term premiums due solely to low inflation expectations), rather than portend asset crashes, and reflect investors’ expectations of eventual slower or negative growth.

When the Fed does decide to act because it sees credit and asset bubble risks, this divergence in how debt capital has affected prices and assets (to cause product and wage de-flation vs. asset in-flation) puts the Fed into no-win scenarios. Raising interest rates where economic growth and inflation are muted, but where assets grow pricey, causes public and political outrage because the Fed is deflating assets that have been the engine of the economy (such as real estate) while pushing already low growth and low inflation even lower through higher costs of capital. The Fed’s attempts to limit systemic risk from crashing asset prices where the Fed has let asset bubbles fester is difficult where price and wage growth and overall inflation are muted.

In the modern economy, if the Fed fails to raise interest rates in a timely manner (by choice or by external pressures) where inflation is not justifying such action, a business cycle will still come to an end, only in a different manner- despite investors’ preferring not to recognize this. If growth and inflation are low and the Fed maintains low interest rates to extend business cycles, asset prices and debt will become inflated, and, instead of economic slowdowns, we get asset crashes and financial crises, which can be triggered by any variety of events.

One way or another, sooner or later, a business cycle ends.

Recommendations for achieving maximum financial stability-

Because of the shifted path of capital, the Fed’s assumptions about, and regular and standard measurements of financial risks to the general public and to the financial system, should also shift:

The shifted path of capital in the modern economy must be understood, embraced, and recognized at earlier stages of an economic cycle so that entire economies and financial systems don’t have to be compromised by interest rate hikes to control asset prices in economies which do not, otherwise, call for rate hikes due to low growth and/or low inflation. Indicators of asset inflation, instead of, or along with, indicators of price and wage inflation should be more closely monitored and addressed by the Fed.

Because of the shifted path of capital, legislators should better understand the path of capital once it leaves the Treasury, and the reason for the path, and create laws and policies that better protect the public and the financial system in this new economic paradigm, or else take necessary legislative measures to reverse the trajectory of this modern paradigm:

Mere awareness of and de-risking from the shift in the path of capital through the economy earlier-on in cycles (through the Fed’s early identification of pockets of instability and then raising of interest rates in response) is not enough, especially since it’s unrealistic to expect the Fed to be able to time monetary policy precisely enough, and since such a policy, alone, would significantly shorten business cycles. Legislators and policy makers must understand the underlying reasons for the shift, where liquidity provided to businesses by the Fed and banks, now, very often bypasses what is believed to be supply side stimuli (i.e. businesses- and, in particular, businesses’ investments in their operations, as opposed to in their stocks), and goes directly into assets and asset growth activities, allowing for stock prices to rise, even when earnings don’t, and allowing deflation to take hold where only the largest companies that scale the fastest and the largest by acquiring other smaller assets in their respective industries, or through other growth initiatives, thus, achieving the lowest prices and downward wage pressures from less competition, can survive; and, they must understand the shift on the consumer side, allowing for (or causing) the cost of shelter to detach from incomes. With these understandings, legislators must create new federal legislation to maximize more long-term sustainable growth without the constant risk of asset bubbles followed by asset crashes from the Fed tightening on monetary policy to control asset and credit bubbles, while, otherwise, preferring to keep rates low to encourage economic expansion. New legislation should include changes to the Fed’s mandates, and changes to the Fed’s policies, tools, and the Fed’s standards of measurements of economic risks from low interest rates and liquidity (such as looking at wage inflation, which may be slow to come, if ever, even as assets grow out of control), and changes to bank regulations; or else, once legislators understand the underlying economic reasons for the shift, if the shift is deemed to be a net-negative evolution of our economy, attempt to use legislation and regulations to have the root causes of the shift minimized or reversed by creating changes to investor, borrower, and bank incentives, and to make structural changes to the economy.