Investing In Retail Real Estate In This New World

Retail real estate, in the form of shopping centers, strip centers, and free- standing buildings- has always been a good investment. As populations grow, and economies grow, and as America has inevitably grown, rents in good locations increase as vacancies decrease, and, thus, property values increase due to the growth in cash flows.

Another reason a retail property’s value increases is simply because the location can be re-purposed. For example, a shopping center may be turned into condominiums.

As a significant number of consumer transactions take place online, vacancy rates skyrocket- and suddenly, something that has been a great investment since the start of this country, commercial real estate- may not be a good investment at all.

If vacancy rates rise in retail areas, rents decrease, rent pricing-power decreases, property cash-flows decrease, and property values decrease. Under such a scenario, retail real estate can increase “only if” the property value itself increases. Such would not happen due to rent and shopper growth, but only due to a profitable re-purposing of the land.

Thus, retail that is totally surrounded by residential property is a better investment than property that is totally surrounded by commercial roads and buildings. Although retail that is totally surrounded by residential property is only use-able for very local and immediate products- i.e. food and drugs, and such businesses may fail, and certainly rents for such businesses are limited, the property value may increase due to the value of such retail property as land for more residential homes. This is less likely to happen in a more commercial zone (which, of course, has lost its commercial value due to online shopping- a double negative for retail in a less residential zone).

In sum, the best retail property investments going forward (other than extraordinarily large community and lifestyle shopping centers that have big money developers behind them … which may not even be such good investments- time will tell) might be only those that are in growing residential locations in this world where rents don’t go up and vacancy rates do go up because and people shop more and more from their cell phones and personal computers. Retail real estate investing may become far less about cash flow and far more about residential property speculation. One exception could be for a succeeding national retailer and a long term lease- but, still, once that lease is up, the property is back to square one in its position as a brick and mortar retail property in this new e-commerce world. As the property owner, you should ensure that you will make enough rental income during such lease-term to justify the property purchase.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Why Does Technology Hate Society?

Amazon is trying to get into every business- to be the point of purchase of and for everything Americans do and buy.

Over and above e-commerce for non-necessities, Amazon is working to have drones make deliveries for immediate and necessary needs, such as food and drugs, so that contact between people while shopping becomes entirely unnecessary.

Why? Why is it so bad or so hard to go out to buy food when we want it? What is it out there that scares Amazon so?

Technology companies seem to me to have the overriding goal, besides to make money, that no one should have to interact with other people. This appears to be a theme that weaves through new technologies- especially of the largest companies.

Facebook wants socializing to take place on the Internet. It wants us to have Facebook friends and Facebook interactions.

Uber wants us to get into cars with no drivers.

Match wants us to date from our couches, rather than socialize in person.

LinkedIn wants us to have fake and shallow business relationships rather than be out building real ones with people we actually meet and enjoy.

Netflix wants us to watch movies alone at home and not in movie theaters with other people who have similar tastes in entertainment with whom we can share the experience.

Yelp wants local businesses, and their owners and their employees, to be degraded by local customers.

More and more, customer service is going to be handled by artificial intelligence; more of our jobs, too.

Apple has us text and not talk. Even voice texting is available where we can talk to the phone and send the message rather than talking to the recipient directly. The phone is a buffer.

Manufacturers of driverless cars not only will have us not interacting with other drivers, they will have us not even interacting with ourselves!- not enjoying the driving process, or enjoying the feel of driving a sports car, or thinking, evaluating, making judgments, reacting, or interacting with the world around us- doing away with the sensation of awareness … and the privilege of feeling alive. They’d have us sit there like lumps on logs, like zombies, staring out the car window.

People walk down the streets with headphones and ear buds, lost in their own heads and their own worlds, not saying hello, or smiling, or tendering the common courtesy of a “thank you” when someone holds a door. And if you bump into someone and apologize graciously, they can’t even hear you and just keep walking with their expressionless faces unaltered.

In the cases of each business mentioned above, the less we interact with people directly and the more we use the above services to interact with others and engage life, the more money the company makes.

Is technology all about hatred of people- a distaste for human interaction and socialization? Is technology just a bunch of companies who either want people to stay separated, or people who just hate people and feel we should not have to interact with each other?

Technology companies -Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg, specifically- said they wanted to provide “the democratization of information” and “more meaningful relationships”- but technology is doing exactly the opposite. Information is entirely unreliable and people have never been more isolated and separated from each other. We don’t shop in town- we shop at stores across the globe. We can’t figure out if we should consider a social media friend a real friend. We instantly discard people we meet in online dating apps because of one bad picture or one disagreeable thought with no context. Businesses serve customers who enter into their virtual stores from God-knows-where in the world. And as for information- unedited and unchecked comments from people without credibility and with their own agendas thrive across the Internet.

The history of our country, of our world, has been based upon personal and business relationships and socializing. So I guess the new business idea was to reverse it all so that there is none of that- so that people no longer matter to each other. This all has no purpose, except just to do it for the sake of doing it. No one seems the slightest bit happier – just the opposite.

So, what is going on? Why is technology all about reducing and diminishing and minimizing human interaction and personal relationships as much as possible? And where is this all leading?

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

The Traders On CNBC Don’t Understand Real Estate

The traders on CNBC, like most stock analysts and investors, don’t understand real estate.

They don’t understand how real estate values affect household wealth and consumer spending and earnings and stocks.

And if they do understand such things- then they don’t understand how rising interest rates and low wages affect real estate values- or else they would be more measured and more mindful of a flattening yield curve in a rising rate, low wage environment- and heed its warning.

Listen to these cowboys at your peril. They don’t want to hear about wages, they don’t want to hear about interest rates, they don’t want to hear about yield curves- they care not for any of these economic facts, data, markers, or indicators, or how they affect real estate values or how real estate values affect consumer spending and earnings; they only want to hear about dreams of flying electric cars and computer chips being put into your dog … and they want you to name that dog FANG.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Stock Analysts And Traders Are Misreading The Meaning Of Low Housing Supplies

Housing supplies nationwide are, generally, low. This pushes prices up- simple supply and demand.

But I caution that 2 things should be considered.

First, supplies on the high end are plentiful- just call a broker in California. It’s the lower-end product that is less plentiful.

But here’s what is really important: Supplies are low because to buy a comparable house now vs. 3 years ago would cost much more Thus- no one is selling their existing home because they can;t replace it. So no one is selling anything. They are just content to have what they were able to get.

Cheap money has pushed prices beyond reach- with many homes owned by investors who have renters in the homes.

Cheap money caused buyers to buy things they can not sell.

Just because supply is low does not mean demand is high. It means that no one is selling because they know they can’t do any better out there.

For example, let’s say there are 100 1964 corvettes in the world and each owner paid $500,000.00. They might sell their car for $800,000.00, which would prove a supply-demand calculation. A house is different. It has to be replaced. If that corvette had to be replaced for another corvette, then even if there was no demand for it, the seller would not sell because he knows another corvette would cost more. So to think that low supply means that many people wants your house  would be folly- especially if it made you go buy 3 more houses just like it. Low supply means there is no one to sell to “at the price you need to replace the present home”. It’s not the demand causing the glut- it’s the price.

Here’s a housing example: 400 people buy homes for $500,000.00. They know to buy an equivalent home a year later will cost $850,000.00, so they choose not to sell. One owner, however, decides to sell for $850,000.00 and gets his price. So, supplies are low, prices are up. But it really has no meaning (and in the mean time, interest rates are going up and home builders are adding inventory).

To think this means that housing is strong and that home builders stocks are a buy would be a perilous miscalculation.

Further, as home builders build more inventory while interest rates are also rising- the elements a big bust is being put into place. As more inventory comes on the market, existing prices will decline- and the newly built houses will also decline in concert.

As interest rates climb and wages do not, even existing demand will wane, along with homeowner equity. They may stay put- they may want to sell lower than at present prices- either way, the trajectory for home prices is not “up”.

Be careful to read this market properly.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Why Doesn’t CNBC Understand Real Estate? – Still!

CNBC, and its stock market industry guests, never get it right on real estate. In 2007-2008, they totally missed the connection between cheap money and an asset bubble. All you heard was bullish talk about stocks and the economy, and any cautious guest was belittled as negative and crazy.

Once again, CNBC is failing to make the most simplistic connection of cheap money and real estate.

Day in and out, CNBC discusses how perplexed they are by a flattening yield curve. What is the confusion?

The Fed funds rate had been at almost a real rate of zero for years- maybe slightly higher. People bought and continue to buy real estate (and stocks) because borrowing costs were and still are so low. It’s very simple. It is “if A then B” logic. Many of the purchases were and are investments.

Since the Fed has raised rates, the yield curve is flattening- rather than rising.

Business expenses are going up in the form of cost of capital- yet, wages remain stagnant. But, the housing market (and stock market) still reflects the cheap money with which real estate has been purchased for years.

Thus, investors are concerned- or aware- that the more expensive money becomes, the higher business costs become, and the lower real estate values become- all while wages remain stagnant.

Alakazam!- There’s your flattening yield curve. It’s very simple. Higher costs plus lower wages equal less borrowing, (or more expensive borrowing), less risky activities, and lower asset values. Further, the breakdown of the real estate market means a breakdown in household wealth, in real estate related jobs, in consumer spending, and, potentially, in bank liquidity and lending (see 2008 and its aftermath). Under this scenario, yield curves that should rise to reflect an inflating economy will flatten or invert to reflect how the tide going-out might shows that the swimmers are naked.

I don’t think that anyone on CNBC understands how the real estate market and related household wealth affects the stock market. They never seem to be able to make the connection. They are so busy trying to explain the financial markets, that the reporters and guests forget to look at what is going on on their own streets and in their own neighborhoods and understand how to factor that in. CNBC commentators consistently disregard the phenomenon of housing-costs going up while interest rates are rising and wages are stagnant. They just don’t care to connect these simple and glaring dots of what risk this contradiction might hold for the economy.

Have you ever heard Jim Cramer hit the buttons “buy, buy, buy” or “sell, sell, sell” with regard to a piece of real estate? Real estate is a complete afterthought to those giving stock advice on CNBC. Buying and selling  stocks is never analyzed within the context of how wages and interest rates are affecting household wealth and real estate. Thus, to listen to such advice would be perilous. It is always assumed on CNBC that stocks lead real estate in some way. As 2008 taught us, the Fed and housing can lead the economy and stocks. But CNBC folks- anchors and guests- give stock opinions based on everything from interest rates, to earnings, to political issues, to currencies, but never give buy or sell calls based on real estate value risk- even after the lessons of 2007-2008!

Per 2007-2008, CNBC ignores and/or misunderstands how real estate bubbles destroy economies and stock markets … at its viewers’ perils. If the anchors and guests on CNBC think that higher interest rates plus lower real wages equal growing home values, or, in the alternative, that despite declining home values, economies and stock markets are not negatively affected, I have to wonder whether they are using the new math … or the old one.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

A Beautiful Day – The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve, 11/19/17

Another gorgeous autumn day of hiking, climbing, and landscape photography at the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve in New York’s beautiful Hudson Valley. It is my honor and pleasure to help New York State preserve and celebrate the Hudson Valley, The Hudson River, and the valuable land and natural resources of New York.

 

http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/the-neil-s-siskind-nature-preserve/

The Yield Curve Speaketh

In a typical – or healthy- economic cycle, businesses can invest capital at good interest rates, median incomes then grow due to lower employment, then wages grow, then earnings grow because people are spending, and the costs of goods and services slowly inflate- and, then, the cost of housing slowly inflates. This is how healthy growth looks.

In this cycle, following the great recession and zero interest rates and Q/E, median incomes have grown, but wages have not, earnings are “eh” (most earnings growth has been in tech-entertainment- Facebook, Apple, video game companies, and the chips that support them), and the costs of goods (PPI and CPI) have not increased. Housing is … well … through the roof.

So- wages, many company’s earnings, and spending, are weak.

Inflation slowly builds from wage growth, and earnings growth, and spending growth, and liquidity. In today’s economy we have low earnings growth (outside of FANG and related technologies), low wage growth, low costs of goods- and sky-high housing (and stock) prices. The latter elements should only inflate following growth in the former elements- not despite them.

Usually, as the Fed funds rate rises, longer term bond yields rise as well- both intending to slow growth and spending and inflation. But we do not have growth, or wage growth, or spending that is raising the costs of goods. Yet the Fed funds rate is rising.

A rise in interest rates should cause near-term slowing and have the short-term affect of causing balance in the economy, slowing down an economy, and then a slow retrenching of rates re-ignites the economy. That’s a cycle. In this economy, there is nothing to slow-down- except asset prices. A slowdown in (or shock to) asset prices could cause a near term crash, and longer-term affects. See 2008 and its aftermath. Long-term yields are telling you that the Fed rate should not be rising because the economic indicators do not require it- otherwise those yields would be rising in concert. The bond market may also be doubly-concerned that asset values- the only areas of growth and inflation- will be hit. Feeble economic growth and asset depreciation- and either one of them, alone- would cause a yield curve to flatten.

The rise in rates hits business earnings in the form of higher costs of capital, slows down already tepid earnings growth, and greatly affects a real estate market that is and has been a giant bubble, since it is based on cheap money and stagnant wages. Moreover, no one questions that Q/E was intended to push investors into riskier assets (i.e. stocks).

With this scenario unfolding, the 10 year bond yield will not rise as the Fed works to control growth and wage inflation- because there is none of either- and the bond market appears to fear that rate increases will hurt the already tepid growth, and a higher cost of capital will hurt businesses and will pop the real estate bubble that has developed- not due to wage and economic growth- but because of cheap money and house flipping- taking asset values, household wealth, and real estate industry-related jobs down with the ship.

We cannot have housing growth with no wage growth in a healthy economy. They are not mutually exclusive data points; they are inextricably tied. Again … see 2008 and its aftermath.

Even in the case where the yield curve is flattening because the bond market believes inflation is entirely under control with no rapid growth risk, no wage growth pressure, no PPI pressure, and no CPI pressure … how well does that bode for the sustainability of present and future stock and housing prices? How can businesses grow earnings without either price increases or sales increases to a higher wage-earning public, and how can housing prices increase from here without wage increases? There is such a thing as “good inflation”.

Under what scenarios will the 10 year bond yield rise?:

  1. If there is in inflation in the economy (not in assets): There is none.
  2. If it is perceived that inflation is coming: With globalization of labor, there will be little to no wage inflation, and with Amazon depressing product prices, plus related brick and mortar weakness, there will be little to no PPI or CPI inflation.
  3. If the economy shows strong growth: Hardly a problem at this stage.

 

If there is no inflation anywhere (wage inflation or product and service price inflation)- bad news.
If there is no inflation anywhere, except in asset (housing) prices- bad news.

Any way you look at it- the yield curve speaketh.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Economic Imbalances Summary

Low unemployment, but low wages

Low growth, but high housing costs

Low interest rates, Q/E in effect, but no inflation

Low PPI, low CPI, but high stock prices

Low wage growth, but high housing cost growth

Rising 2 year bond yields, but stable 10 year yields

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Stop Amazon; Stop Facebook

A retail business is no longer an option for entrepreneurs. A new retail concept (online or offline) has little chance of survival. Even a new product idea (as opposed to a retail store idea) has to be able to sell somewhere. If Amazon is the only outlet, or if Amazon decides to manufacture and sell the same or similar products- how can a new product-business survive against a similar Amazon product…  a company that is happy to lose money so it can take market-share?[1]

You might say- well, a new business has to have the inventiveness and ingenuity to survive. It needs to get a patent so it can’t be copied. It has to be unique and smart. To that I ask, “but what about Snap”? Snap’s Snapchat products are among the most advanced, modern, sophisticated, and creative digital products around- but Facebook is so big and keeps stealing its ideas and creations. How can a small company ever succeed? Even Snap, with billions of dollars, can’t overcome the problem (yet) of companies being too big. If even Snap, with hundreds of millions of users, can’t succeed in social media- then no company will ever be able to catch up to Facebook in that space.

This is not how American capitalism is supposed to work.

Legislation can curb Amazon so that it can’t be in “every” industry to the degree that other options for consumers disappear, and people’s choices can curb Facebook (by stopping use).

And companies like Yelp only help to destroy small businesses. Home Depot and WalMart can withstand people’s negative reviews- but the local hardware and clothing stores can not. People on Yelp and TripAdvisor are helping to destroy America. No small businesses will be left.

The largeness of companies has gotten to a point where being an entrepreneur is becoming impossible- and the American Dream is being destroyed for good … I mean … “for bad”.

In the cases of Amazon and Facebook, I don’t blame these companies[2]. Their jobs are to grow and earn. The nature of the Internet is that locality and personal relationships have become irrelevant business concepts. Once a company takes hold, it feeds on itself and takes over the world market. So something (such as a government) needs to take control of the situations so that new businesses can start and grow.

__________________________________________________________

FN

[1] Existing retailers with multiple locations and famous brand names have far better opportunities than brand new retailers to survive in an Amazon world by merchandising their retail stores with unique products. But new retail concepts, online or offline, have little chances of success unless their products line are extraordinarily unique. Same goes for products intended to be manufactured and sold wholesale. The limited retail outlets to sell to make it difficult. A new product’s best path to the consumer market is to sell/license the idea and IP to a major retailer, rather than trying to sell the products themselves to retailers- and even that is no easy task.

[2] Business review sites are another story. They encourage meanness, nastiness,  negativity, and defamation. The more negative the comments the more readers they get, the more readers they get the more ad space is sold- and they know it and benefit from it. It’s an unethical way to make a living. Of course, they justify it by believing they are providing a forum for informing the public, but these companies are no more than formalized chat rooms filled with venom and hate. Companies like these would be akin to a newspaper in 1985 being printed where people degrade and insult businesses in their own neighborhoods. Who would print such a magazine? Who would buy such a magazine? Neighborhoods would go to war. No newsstand in town would carry such a putrid publication about its own local businesses. These online companies are abhorrent to the ideas of a meaningful society with good-will and sympathy and compassion, and divide communities and peoples, and such companies could only survive in a technology-driven world, like today’s world, where neighborliness and community are disappearing American values. The business owner next door is treated with the same thoughtlessness and insensitivity as the business owner on the other side of the world. And then people wonder why all the storefronts in their neighborhoods are empty and dilapidated.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskind help children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products