Is Jay Powell Doing An Incredible Job As Fed Chairman?- By NEIL SISKIND

Well, only history can really answer this. But, so far- the answer appears to be “yes”.

The Fed has effectively telegraphed each Fed hike. The market was always ready for what it got.

While many accuse the Fed of wavering and vacillating in past months, I say the opposite. The Fed has effectively telegraphed its slow move towards the end of the hiking cycle. The market has never misjudged where the Fed was headed.

True, that in October, 2018, the market was caught-off-guard with a hawkish comment regarding the neutral rate. But, it was not that the market found the Fed to be “surprisingly” hawkish- it was that the market found the Fed to be “excessively” hawkish.

So, while the Fed has been a bit too hawkish in tone for the market’s taste, it has (yet) to have been too hawkish in action (again, history will determine). Anyway, who can account for taste?

And now, the market and the Fed appear to be on the same page.

The U.S. economy is solid, housing prices are coming into better alignment with incomes and risk is being removed from housing markets, tighter credit is muting risky behaviors, and stock valuations are a bit more sensible.

What has Chairman Powell done wrong?

Nothing that I can see (yet).

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Advertisements

The Yield Curve Is “Lying”, And Fools Are “Buying”- by NEIL SISKIND

pikes2

Since widening at the end of 2018, yields on corporate bonds are again narrowing.

Some believe that, since credit usually leads equities and the economy, when there’s a divergence between the performances of credit and equities, like now, credit markets are right and stocks are wrong about the economy.

Here’s the deal:

Investors who are concerned about growth and equities would often flee to the safety of Treasuries. But that debt is now offering little yield- while also providing duration risk due to quantitative tightening and funding of the national debt.

So, there are good reasons to not own Treasuries with duration.

As a second option, investors are buying corporate debt, where they see debt, in general, as less risky than equities and as somewhere they can obtain yield.

Thus, if you’re using narrowing spreads as an economic indicator, to show that the economy is strong, you’d be wrong. In their blind and desperate searches for yield, investors are disregarding risk.

If your waiting for the yield curve to invert to prove a forthcoming recession, you’d also be wrong. There is too much government intervention in fixed income markets, compounded by investors’ fears of such government intervention eating principle. Thus, the yield curve may never invert before the next recession- meaning that the yield curve, like corporate bonds, are faking you out.

For, perhaps, the first time, investors can’t rely on bonds and credit to tell them where the economy is going. Stocks may be a better indicator this time. Yes- this time it may be different.

Corporate credit spreads will widen … one day … suddenly … as investors flee to cash, and as economic weakness grows- and the yield curve may have never properly warned anyone.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

The Real Evil Of Globalization

Globalization is destroying America- but, maybe, not quite how you think.

The usual attack on globalization is that it sends jobs- American jobs- manufacturing and services- to other countries; and the attacks are valid- though there are proponents of globalization who can show the benefits of it.

But, globalization causes prices to go lower and lower, as people who are willing to work for less and less, are located.

As prices go down, volume, over margin, becomes vital. Volume requires scale. As companies scale, small companies- and any potential newcomers to an industry- die.

Monopolies, or effective monopolies, or duopolies, form, pushing prices (and wages) downward.

As a result, competition, and entrepreneurship, decline. It just becomes way too hard and way too expensive to compete in an industry, or to acquire new customers, or to launch a new product- or to develop one to sell to the few remaining distribution outlets- or to fight any knock-offs by large companies in court.

America will soon be comprised only of many large companies … and their employees. There will be room for some small businesses that compete on service … which means business owners will have to work day and night – on a greater level than ever- to stay independent. And the key tasks for employees of large companies will be routine tasks (such as customer service) and back-end technological work.

In other words- a nation of large companies, boring jobs, and boring people with self driving cars, moving sidewalks, silver jumpsuits we all will wear- and a robotic existence.

Entrepreneurship and the American spirit will be ruined by “scale”.

All of this due to companies- and consumers- seeking the lowest prices (a/k/a a race to the bottom).

Neil-Siskind-lawyer-picture

The Shifted Path of Capital Principle- by NEIL SISKIND

I’ve developed the economic principle, “The Shifted Path of Capital Principle”, to explain that, in the modern U.S. economy, capital often flows from the Fed, to banks, and then directly into assets (as opposed to moving from the Fed, to banks, and into the broader economy through investments by businesses in their respective operations, as in prior U.S. economies and eras), which leads to potentially dangerous asset inflation, without more general economy-wide inflation, and even with economy-wide deflation, due, also, in part, to the shifted path of capital.

In the old economy (or, the Industrial and Post-Industrial Eras), assets, such as homes and stocks, were beneficiaries of industry and inventiveness, hard work, and prosperity. These factors, or characteristics, led to earnings growth for companies, and wage growth and income growth for employees and executives, and, in turn, led to higher stock prices for companies and rising home demand from, and rising home prices for, employees and consumers. This path of capital, from business investment and growth outward to the larger economy, also led to higher product prices, as demand grew, and as U.S. labor was finite. Eventually, inflation set-in, interest rates increased, and the economy slowed. Stock prices would reflect earnings declines (or earnings growth, if company pricing-power permitted for price increases to outpace inflation), and home prices would level-off or decline as interest rates rose and as demand slowed. Eventually, as interest rates declined, a new up-cycle in the economy would begin.

In the modern economy (or, the digital economy), dollars flow more directly from the Fed into assets. Dollars flow directly from the Fed to banks, and then into homes which are used by investors as generators of income and profit, rather than as places to live as the result of employment, income growth, and economic prosperity, as has, historically, been the norm. Houses and apartments become trading vehicles and short-term income generators. On the equities side, dollar denominated debt is incurred by companies to buy their own company stock to push up the price and their EPS. This flow of debt capital directly into stocks- instead of into companies’ operations, where it leads to earnings growth through productivity, ingenuity, and capex, resulting in sales, pricing power, and stock price growth- works to “directly” (rather than through a more indirect “trickle through”) and, some might say, “artificially”, cause stock prices to rise, irrespective of any growth in earnings, or even in revenues.

At the same time as inexpensive debt capital is being used by businesses and investors to inflate assets, it’s also being used by businesses to deflate prices and wages.

The combination of cheap debt and a higher stock price is used by companies to increase “scale” through heightened marketing and acquisitions. The scale allows for lower input costs, and, thus, lower consumer prices, and lower wages as competition declines. The scale provides for higher profits, due to a greater industry presence and more revenues driven by size and low prices, and fewer competitors. Big companies grow bigger, and small competitors have lesser and lesser abilities to compete because technology causes consumers to care less about location, convenience, and relationship than about price, alone.

All of the above, taken together, means that the path of capital leads to less price and wage inflation, and more investment-oriented, or even risk-oriented uses of capital. Asset and debt inflation displace price and wage inflation, as capital flows directly from the Fed to banks, and from banks to assets- instead of into capex, innovation, productivity, and wage growth.

In the modern economy, a mature economic cycle means less price and wage pressures, and more asset bubbles and financial imbalances from misallocations of cheap credit. As the Fed looks at accepted economic indicators to evaluate inflationary pressures, it misreads signals to indicate a low level of economic risk (because of low price inflation), and then keeps rates too low for too long, as asset imbalances grow- until it’s too late to ease-out of the situation or achieve a soft landing.

Flat and inverted yield curves are misread to only reflect low inflation expectations (including misreading flat and inverted curves to reflect low term premiums due solely to low inflation expectations), rather than portend asset crashes, and reflect investors’ expectations of eventual slower or negative growth.

When the Fed does decide to act because it sees credit and asset bubble risks, this divergence in how debt capital has affected prices and assets (to cause price and wage de-flation vs. asset in-flation) puts the Fed into no-win scenarios. Raising interest rates where economic growth and inflation are muted, but where assets grow pricey, causes public and political outrage because the Fed is deflating assets that have been the engine of the economy (such as real estate) while pushing already low growth and low inflation even lower through higher costs of capital. The Fed’s attempts to limit systemic risk from crashing asset prices where the Fed has let asset bubbles fester is difficult where price and wage growth and overall inflation are muted.

In the modern economy, if the Fed fails to raise interest rates in a timely manner (by choice or by external pressures) where inflation is not justifying such action, a business cycle will still come to an end, only in a different manner- despite investors’ preferring not to recognize this. If growth and inflation are low and the Fed maintains low interest rates to extend business cycles, asset prices and debt will become inflated, and, instead of economic slowdowns, we get asset crashes and financial crises, which can be triggered by any variety of events.

One way or another, sooner or later, a business cycle ends.

Recommendations for achieving maximum financial stability-

Because of the shifted path of capital, the Fed’s assumptions about, and regular and standard measurements of financial risks to the general public and to the financial system, should also shift:

The shifted path of capital in the modern economy must be understood, embraced, and recognized at earlier stages of an economic cycle so that entire economies and financial systems don’t have to be compromised by interest rate hikes to control asset prices in economies which do not, otherwise, call for rate hikes due to low growth and/or low inflation. Indicators of asset inflation, instead of, or along with, indicators of price and wage inflation should be more closely monitored and addressed by the Fed.

Because of the shifted path of capital, legislators should better understand the path of capital once it leaves the Treasury, and the reason for the path, and create laws and policies that better protect the public and the financial system in this new economic paradigm, or else take necessary legislative measures to reverse the trajectory of this modern paradigm:

Mere awareness of and de-risking from the shift in the path of capital through the economy earlier-on in cycles (through the Fed’s early identification of pockets of instability and then raising of interest rates in response) is not enough, especially since it’s unrealistic to expect the Fed to be able to time monetary policy precisely enough, and since such a policy, alone, would significantly shorten business cycles. Legislators and policy makers must understand the underlying reasons for the shift, where liquidity provided to businesses by the Fed and banks, now, very often bypasses what is believed to be supply side stimuli (i.e. businesses- and, in particular, businesses’ investments in their operations, as opposed to in their stocks), and goes directly into assets and asset growth activities, allowing for stock prices to rise, even when earnings don’t, and allowing deflation to take hold where only the largest companies that scale the fastest and the largest by acquiring other smaller assets in their respective industries, or through other growth initiatives, thus, achieving the lowest prices and downward wage pressures from less competition, can survive; and, they must understand the shift on the consumer side, allowing for (or causing) the cost of shelter to detach from incomes. With these understandings, legislators must create new federal legislation to maximize more long-term sustainable growth without the constant risk of asset bubbles followed by asset crashes from the Fed tightening on monetary policy to control asset and credit bubbles, while, otherwise, preferring to keep rates low to encourage economic expansion. New legislation should include changes to the Fed’s mandates, and changes to the Fed’s policies, tools, and the Fed’s standards of measurements of economic risks from low interest rates and liquidity (such as looking at wage inflation, which may be slow to come, if ever, even as assets grow out of control), and changes to bank regulations.

Deal Or No Deal?: There Will Be No China Trade Agreement- And No Certainty- By NEIL SISKIND

If you’re making certain business and investment decisions with the hopes and expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement, I’d urge you to curb your enthusiasm, as follows:

  1. We won’t be executing any “trade agreement” as you know one- meaning, a preferential or free trade agreement between or among parties in order to reduce (or eliminate) tariffs, quotas, and other trade restrictions on items traded between the signatories; where both, or multiple countries, loosen their trade restrictions to help out businesses so that they can prosper better between the different countries. This one-dimensional definition does not apply to the multi-dimensional U.S.-China problem. Neither party is particularly interested in helping cause the other to prosper.

The low or zero tariff rate in a true “trade agreement” are not contingent on one party making structural political, legal, and economic changes to the satisfaction of the other. A trade agreement has tariff rates (or zero rates) that are fixed and final (unless one country violates its tariff rate or manipulates the sale(s) of a category of products or of an industry to benefit its own countries’ companies and/or industries).

We don’t have an existing “trade agreement” with China. It’s not like NAFTA, where we have to replace an existing agreement. Our “agreement” with China is this: If you stop violating international laws and accepted global trade and financial practices, and prove it, you can regain access to our market, without tariffs. It’s no different than the trade agreement offered for the past year, which China has refused. There’s no reason for or benefit to the U.S. to enter into a trade agreement with China. China doesn’t honor terms, laws, or obligations. With China in violation of international laws and global trade norms and practices, and no apparent internal desire to change, we have no reason to, or benefit from, a trade agreement with China.

  1. The term “trade war” over-simplifies this dispute. This dispute’s inception was not one nation’s implementation of tariffs and barriers, or the use of subsidies or dumping, to protect a market or industry, followed by another nation’s in-kind response. It’s true that a “trade war” is one nation’s significant protectionist actions or policies met by another nation’s countervailing actions or policies. But, China’s practices are not just to protect a product or an industry, but the use of a mercantile approach, and illegal activity, and oppressive terms, to protect the entire country and close-off access to all industries by either limiting foreign ownership and requiring IP disclosures and transfers in exchange for access. This goes far beyond trade protections. China has been operating in an unacceptable manner in contravention of global practices and acceptable legal and commercial standards for many years. This is more than a trade war and tit-for-tat tariffs. It’s a broad strategy by China to steal property, circumvent laws, and unilaterally benefit from general market access which China, itself, denies, in all respects, to others. Just by virtue of subsidizing private (or supposedly private) companies in China, China is violating the very spirit of international trade and trade agreements in the most fundamental of ways. This practice is counter to the entire purpose or usefulness of trade agreements for any other country. Our tariffs on China’s goods are more like sanctions for practices and behaviors contrary to accepted global trade and international laws. It’s like China is being punished for breaking the law, and then being put on parole. Theft, corporate espionage, economy-wide subsidies, forced technology transfers, forced joint ventures- things that go beyond tariffs and single-product or single-industry protectionist trade barriers are at play.

There are barriers to operating in the Chinese markets that affect all aspects of commerce, law, trade, and monetary policy. Our disagreements and disputes with China should never have been labeled a “trade war” by the media or by the White House or Congress. This is an all-out disagreement about cultures, values, laws, and economic and political structures. We are at war with China in every conceivable way over every conceivable issue, which has led to tariffs, counter-tariffs, and a “trade war” as a symptom, or result of the differences. The tariffs on China are in response to all of our grievances, and are not just tariffs in response to tariffs (or other industry or product-specific measures). If you add in theft, espionage, currency manipulation, trade route military tensions, and tensions over geographical control, such in over Taiwan and North Korea, China is as much an enemy of the U.S. as is any other nation we consider to be an enemy.

When you look at the situation through this lens, you see why we can’t expect a typical, or easy, or immediate, resolution, as you might see in a “trade war”, but, rather a solution that is more multifaceted and multidimensional, and multi-year, in nature.

  1. If China really wants a trade agreement, and truly plans to change, why show up at the G-20 entirely empty-handed, even with tariffs in place and with new tariffs being threatened.
  2. Allies enter into trade agreements to expand and guaranty free trade relationships. Adversaries do not enter into trade agreements as a way to resolve animosities and differences. Disputes are not settled with trade agreements. Trade agreements, like any other agreements, require signatures- but also mutual respect and trust … and these elements do not exist between the parties.
  3. I take President Xi Jinping’s recent comment related to nothing interfering with its determined policy on Taiwan as a strong warning to the U.S. “Foreign interference in China’s Taiwan reunification issue is intolerable”, Xi said. There are more than tariff and economic issues separating the parties, including tensions in the South China Sea and a struggle for power and influence over North Korea.
  4. So- if we make no trade “agreement”, what about a trade “deal“?

It depends on what you consider a “deal”. A real “deal”  has “certainty” and “finality” of obligations and expectations. A temporary “deal”, or a “deal” with conditions and contingencies that go beyond one party must act to obligate the other to act, lacks “certainty” and “finality”, and is not good for businesses. There can be no permanence, and, thus, no certainty for businesses (and for investors) if a deal has numerous and complex unilateral requirements that take months or even years to prove. That is not much more than a punch-list of items that are hopefully executed on. A valuable “deal” with regard to and for businesses, must have “finality”, “certainty”, in the short or medium terms, and clear rules of engagement, such that supply-side business planning and investment that stimulates economic growth is incentivized and can flourish. A “springing deal”, one that takes effect only if other contingencies are satisfied, is hardly “certain”.  “deal” where tariffs can be re-established if China fails to meet its obligations and convenants of any kind is cause for concern of a lack of “certainty”.

Even if China completely capitulates, in many ways, or even in all ways, there still will be no “final” and “certain” “deal”. Unless the President completely abandons his concerns and principles on China’s trade practices and economic structure, China will have to pay tariffs for access to our market until new policies and compliance begin, and are verified with benchmarks, standards, and inspections. Changed practices, especially on allowing foreign majority ownership in all industries, can only be established through a pattern of many transactions, which, by definition, will require time.

From a legal perspective, a “promise by one party in exchange for a promise by a counter-party” creates a binding agreement. But, from a business planning perspective, without “finality” and “certainty”, such as a deal based on promises to act in the future, rather than on actions that can and will be immediately taken and proven, can it really be said that a useful deal has been made for businesses, one upon which accurate business investments, capex, and quantifiable capital risks can occur?

Ask yourself this: Does it “feel” like China wants to go along with our rules and requirements? Does it “feel” like China wants to be a party to our version of a trade agreement or trade deal? How can you do business with a party that will resent you day-in and day-out for making it act and operate as you dictate?

The more U.S. products that China agrees to purchase, the more persuaded I am that it wants to avoid non-trade related topics or changes. China’s leaders no doubt believe that if they target the Trump administration’s financial sensibilities, they can avoid more significant legal, economic, and political changes as part of a trade deal.

I suspect there will be a temporary tariff deal with China (on, or in 60 days from March 1) where we will lower our impending 25% rate on China’s goods to 10% or 15% with a time frame (1-3 years) for China to alter its practices, while China, immediately, removes all tariffs on our goods- particularly, any retaliatory tariffs- and, immediately, makes an agreed amount of purchases of U.S. products. No greater reduction of tariffs will be made before China completes its promises- and the rate could rise in 1-3 years if China fails to meet its obligations. Any “deal” would be a “China goes first” deal. President Trump will not allow China to rebuild itself through access to our market with the risk that China is bluffing and defaults on its obligations in 3 months, or 6 months, or 3 years, or 6 years. China’s changes must be tested, proven, and certain.

If an announcement comes from the Trump administration that a “deal” has been reached- look beyond the headline print … and read the fine print. You can call something a “deal”, even without the necessary elements and benefits of one. But, just because you call a daisy a rose- it does not make it one. China may never be able or desirous of meeting the terms of a “deal”.

No FAKE DEALS, Mr. President!

7. What’s past is prologue. Since the G20, China has done nothing to show good faith or to gain our trust or show any intention to change:

It has not passed a law to stop its people from mailing Fentanyl to Americans, as promised.

It agreed to implement only a “temporary” auto tariff reduction, and only back to the level where it already wrongly was- and hasn’t even done it.

And, oh … yes …  China bought some edamame from us.

Are these the bases for all our hopes?

8. President Trump has not exactly been solidifying agreements during his presidency: N. Korea denuclearization, China auto tariffs and Fentanyl laws, repeal of Obamacare, USMCA finalization, the full length of a border wall … this president’s track record for finalizing agreements is unimpressive.

 

Some people (in particular, equities analysts and traders and asset and portfolio managers seeking any reason for stocks to rise) think that this is now about optics– and that any sort of positive announcement on the relationship and the resulting good optics will be enough for the markets and for America. Those people would be wrong. This is about revenues, and margins, and the economy. Optics won’t help with business planning and visibility. Stocks can never do well over time without good earnings- which require reasonable levels of visibility into costs, customers, pricing, and supply chain management issues. Sure, stocks might rally on news of “a deal” … but earnings will be the ultimate decider. Anything other than a binary approach- to either raise tariffs to a fixed long-term rate (at least until all required changes are made), or to totally forego any tariffs on China in exchange for certain immediately proven actions- will cause a continued lack of certainty and visibility for businesses.

Keep two thing in mind when your optimism tells you that we may soon have a trade agreement or final and certain trade deal with China:

First, we still haven’t even been able to finalize a trade agreement or trade deal with Canada and Mexico!

Second, the Trump administration can’t even reach an agreement on international issues (immigration) with the Democrat party …

… and you’re banking on one being reached with the Communist party?

 

 

 

____________________________

endnote

China made an enormous miscalculation with retaliatory tariffs to our retaliatory tariffs. Our initial tariffs were in retaliation to years of unfair and illegal trade practices by China, which we have been complaining about for decades, through several presidential administrations. For China to retaliate to our tariffs for China’s activities and practices that we explained and complained were unfair, and to which we were retaliating, was an act of complete disregard for international relations, international law, international practices, and for the interests or concerns of any other nation except for its own. Rather than address our retaliatory tariffs, China chose to challenge us, attempt to one-up us, antagonize us, and create a riff in relations, with the goal of continuing its practices of IP theft, corporate espionage, and protectionism, and ransacking our technological innovations; and China’s economy is paying a price for its leaders’ arrogance and decision to agitate an enemy, rather than cooperate with the world. Perhaps the Chinese leadership needs to re-read Sun Tzu’s advice in The Art of War about understanding the enemy- and one’s self. Or perhaps, in the long run, China will prevail in its long-term ambitions. Only time will tell. After all, Sun Tzu’s strategies are long-term ones that are grounded in fortitude, farsightedness … and patience.

 

There Will Be No China Trade Deal!- by NEIL SISKIND

First of all, we never had a China trade deal in the past. It’s not like NAFTA, where we need to replace something that we have. We don’t need a “trade deal” with China. The “deal” is this: “Stop breaking the law and defying international trade rules and practices, and then we will accept your products without tariffs”. That is the “deal”. We should not be signing anything- unless China agrees to buy, and then actually buys, a whole load of U.S. products.

Even then, China has to go first. We should not provide access to our markets without tariffs and help China to keep growing until we see changes in important behaviors- which will take months- really, years. We should not allow China to get its footing back, and get itself back on its path of world conquest, just to find out that it isn’t doing what it promised- again. How about: “No trust and verify”.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Trade: China Is Ruining The World- by NEIL SISKIND

The U.S. did nothing wrong to China. China has had years of protectionism, mercantilism, and illegal behaviors, and has refused and declined to abide by international expectations, laws, and activities related to trade- and has failed to allow fair and equal access to its markets.

The U.S. responded (finally) to these protectionist and illegal activities, with tariffs.

China should have stopped there and started negotiating with us.

This would have been difficult enough for China.

But, instead, it chose to retaliate to our retaliation to their protectionist, illegal, and mercantilism-style activities (after many years of patience on our part)- which showed the world what China really is- a bad actor on the global stage that is just looking for power and trouble.

And now it is starting even more trouble by asserting power over Taiwan.

China is a troublemaker nation. It has no respect for national autonomy- except for its own- and has no respect for law, human rights, being a member of a global community- or anything right or just. It deserves its recent decline- and we are right to stand strong.

China should never have retaliated to our initial tariffs. It was arrogant, greedy, short-sighted, and detrimental to its own goals in all respects- and harmful to world peace.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products