You Should Fear An Economy Relying On The Consumer- by NEIL SISKIND

Business investment is weak, many corporate balance sheets have significant debt loads, stocks are crashing, wage growth is still weak while tariffs have been implemented and new ones await, and as interest rates have risen and are still rising.

Analysts point to a strong consumer and a strong jobs market as the bases for a strong economy going forward.

You can’t have demand side stimuli (consumer spending) support an economy, and you can’t have a strong jobs market, without supply side stimulus … not for very long.

This is 2005-2007 all over again- stagnant or slow wage growth, rising rates, low unemployment, high debt levels due to rates being low for long, sinking oil prices, low inflation, and asset (houses and stocks) and debt excesses- except now we also have a trade war.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Why Is President Trump Moving The Troops Out Of Syria?

Most likely to re-calibrate and reconstitute our forces for military action of some sort in Asia and the South China Sea- either with North Korea or China- as events unfold in 2019.

This Fed Could Not Be Any Less Transparent- By NEIL SISKIND

This Fed would have us believe it is operating in accordance with its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. It has said as much.

The Fed, though, has a third mandate ever since the financial crisis: Stability of the financial system.

Chairman Powell, in his December 19th testimony, clearly said that he is not concerned about inflation- in prices or in wages- but the Fed continues to raise interest rates.

The Fed would have us believe it feels compelled to get interest rates to a point of neutral, where it is neither accommodative or restrictive. Not true. The Fed wants credit and risk to tighten- to be restrictive on the economy. Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, made it plain in an interview with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays on December 20, 2018, that he believes that the Fed wants to slow the economy- period. Chairman Powell’s comments on the lack of inflation and intent to raise rates, confirms this.

Chairman Powell has failed to articulate one area of concern which makes the continuation of raising rates seem logical- not even any inflation concerns. But raising them as the stock market crashes so that he has cushion if he ever needs it, is not believable; prudent- but not believable.

Here are some comments Chairman Powell has made in the two most recent Fed meetings:

  • No asset class is too pricey
  • There’s little wage inflation and wage growth is not necessarily inflationary
  • Corporate debt is concerning, but not obscene
  • Price inflation is about 2%, at best, and has been stuck there
  • It’s not the Fed’s job to ensure financial stability
  • Labor markets are tight but wage growth doesn’t cause inflation
  • The U.S.-China conflict is not a big concern
  • No comments at all on home prices

The Fed would have us believe it is moving rates higher so that if and when there is an economic downturn, it will have bullets in its gun (or arrows in its quiver) to re-stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates. This is not true. No Fed would hike into slowing GDP growth and a sinking stock market just so it can cut if it needs to “someday”, while it purports to see little inflation or economic that it can articulate (aside from some concern about Italy’s problems).

Some might argue that this is exactly the time to hike rates- while the economy is strong and can withstand it- even if the stock market doesn’t like it. But, with no inflation, and expectations by everyone of lower GDP and heightening global stresses in the coming months, raising rates as cushion for a slowdown without the ability to point to any foreseeable risks, is a bit theoretical and intangible- and this Chairman was supposed to be avoiding theory to the detriment of pragmatism and data dependence. Moreover, it’s not so much that the economy is strong as much as it is that the Fed will not admit any weakness. Powell is trying to have it both ways- raise rates and have people accept it as prudent without acknowledging any troubles- and it’s not working.

This does not mean that the Fed is wrong for hiking interest rates, it just means that it is not being transparent about the growing and foreseeable risks as it does so. The Fed has elected to perplex people, over alarming us.

The Fed has had one agenda with regard to its rate hikes- to slow the economy by tightening credit and deflating asset prices built on debt and risk. No other story line it presents holds up to scrutiny.

This Fed is choosing jawboning and its third mandate over transparency in order to get credit to tighten itself without actual rate hikes, if possible, and get people to stop making and taking speculative loans and investments. This, along with the lack of transparency and a complete understanding of the Fed’s intentions, are causing significant volatility and declines in stocks and in homes. But, the Fed may be fine with that if it can do one thing that matters most- prevent another financial crises due to continued extensions of cheap credit, more bad loans, and more asset inflation.

The Fed has recently expressed some dovishness as asset prices have declined, having much to do with people’s concerns that asset price declines will affect the “real economy”. If this proves true, the Fed may be near done with its hiking cycle. If this does not prove to be the case, per the data, the Fed may either decide to continue with hikes until the economy slows- or it could remain dovish, since assets prices and credit may come under control. We’ll see.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

The Fed: Americans Forget About Good Old-Fashioned Jawboning- By NEIL SISKIND

The more that Chairman Powell promises more rate hikes, the tighter credit becomes. This tighter credit, even without actual hikes, can help slow the economy and prevent the Fed from having to even act- or enable it to act to a lesser degree than projected. Let the Fed do its job.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Prepare Yourself for 2019! The Fed, China, N. Korea, & Trump- By NEIL SISKIND

Here are the major things you should prepare for in the new year:

  1. The Fed is determined to slow the economy. While it may become more dovish and raise rates less than previously expected, this would only be in response to much tighter credit, lower earnings, contracting GDP, and lower asset values. Do not underestimate the Fed’s intent to slow this economy- which does not mean lower inflation- because there isn’t any- but means lower asset values, and whatever that brings with it- including lower profits and higher unemployment. Invest accordingly- now.
  2. As U.S.-China negotiations continue, the relationship will sour further as it becomes clear that little common ground and compromise is possible because our cultures are too divergent, and our respective values too deeply entrenched, causing frustrations to grow. The trade conflict will escalate- no matter how much edamame the Chinese agree to buy from us.
  3. North Korea will rise as a major irritant on the world stage as it seeks to stoke the flames of the U.S.- China dispute and seeks all the benefits it can achieve for itself from the divide. North Korea will present a major threat to global stability starting in the first half of 2019.
  4. The U.S. and China will face a potential military showdown in the South China Sea, which may begin as a potential military conflict between China and Canada, which has been our proxy for actions against China, or over a U.S. military action in North Korea from the air or sea.
  5. We need to now see how this shocking U.S. withdrawal from Syria unfolds in terms of new terror threats- which I believed, and was thrilled, were nearly cured by the President; so, I am not sure what he is thinking. I await more facts. I suspect that a military conflict in Asia is possible (most likely with N. Korea, though possibly also with China over territory issues- not over trade … although all issues with China are connected and inter-related at this point).

2019 is going to be a thrilling and terrifying year of global events from Europe, to Asia, to the Middle East- to the United States. What else would you expect from a real time global version of “The Apprentice”, where everyone is competing to make a profit and to survive and move to the next level before Donald Trump lays down the hammer?

Lights … cameras …

roll ’em!

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

The Yield Curve: Is It Quantitative Easing, Or Is It Quantitative Tightening?- by NEIL SISKIND

Quantitative easing, intentionally, caused bond yields to decline.

Now, the reversal of that policy, or quantitative tightening, may be causing bond yields to rise.

Economists and analysts use quantitative easing as the reason that the 10-yr. yield and the yield curve may not be signaling the same message as in the past.

Others, like myself, argue that the yield curve would be flatter sans quantitative tightening, which means that the yield curve would be flatter, or even inverted by now, were it not “butfor” quantitative tightening.

So, is quantitative easing to blame for a flatter curve- or is quantitative tightening to blame for a curve that appears steeper than it really is, or would be, based on investor expectations alone?

Further, are some investors avoiding bonds because of quantitative tightening- causing the yield curve to be even steeper and even less reflective of true investor sentiment?

You have to consider time frames. Let’s use an extreme example. What if quantitative easing took place 40 years ago? Could you blame a flatter curve on quantitative easing in that case? What about if it was 20 years ago? Now, what about 10?

It depends on how far back you go to set your starting line.

Using my 40 years ago quantitative easing purchases example, how long can you point to quantitative easing as a significant influence on the the 10-yr. and long bonds and the yield curve(s) more than you can blame the present and active quantitative tightening policy being implemented? Can it be said that quantitative easing affect the yield curve forever? At what point, and how much time has to pass after a quantitative easing before markets are determined to have re-taken control of prices and yield curves. Ten years? Twenty? Never?

Quantitative tightening is a present and on-going activity. It has an immediate and present effect that is measurable, rather than theoretical.

Quantitative easing was “then”- quantitative tightening is “now”.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 7 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Some Legal Clarifications On Trump Hush Money- By NEIL SISKIND

The term “hush money” is being misused in the media to make the payor of such money sound like a criminal or made out to be underhanded. It is the recipient of “hush money” who often is committing a crime”.

I. Hush Money:

The proper use of the term “hush money” is for something that “gets demanded” to pay for silence. It’s not something that is “offered”. It is often part of a blackmail. Someone pays “hush money” because someone demands it to stay hushed. It is not a crime of any sort by the payor- unless it’s a “bribe” to cover up a crime (the crime would be “bribery”, not “hush money”), or a payment for staying silent help to perpetrate a financial fraud (the crime would be “fraud” and “conspiracy”, not “hush money”). Hiding an affair is neither of these.

II. Campaign Finance:

A. Michael Cohen’s Claims-

-If it was Michael Cohen’s intent for the payments to help Trump become President, that doesn’t mean it was Trump’s intent, too. Cohen may have had his own elaborate ambitions for himself on Trump’s coattails.

-Cohen took a plea deal in exchange for such accusation; always impeachable.

B. Trump’s Defense-

-Without a writing or audio, Trump’s intent of any payments is Trump’s word vs. Cohen’s (though if there is such, that would not be too good for Trump).

-Any past payments (a pattern) by Trump for such kinds of confidentiality, especially if made by or through Cohen, could (should and would) vindicate Trump on “intent” (per the John Edwards precedent).

-Even without past payments, the Edwards precedent stands.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Cap Rate Abuse- By NEIL SISKIND

Cap rates- or capitalization rates- are ratios used to show the annual pre-mortgage cash flow from real estate rental income. For example, if you pay $1M for an apartment building, and after all expenses (except mortgage), you have $100,000.00 in profit, then you have what’s known as a “10 cap”- or 10% return on your money. This is different than your cash on cash return. If you finance 70% of the $1M, your cash on cash percentage return- calculated either before or after mortgage payments- is different than your cap rate.

Sellers and brokers attempt to apply the cap rate analysis to sales of businesses and alternative real estate investments. For example, a seller will offer his or her business for $1M and show that income is $300,000.00 profit after all expenses- and call that a “30 cap” because you get 30% return on your money if you pay cash. While, depending on the type of business, and assuming you make that rerun, it might be a good deal, I would not call that a “30 cap”. It is simply a term that does not apply. “ROI” or “earnings multiple” are terms that apply to a business sale, but, not “cap rate”.

Here’s where it gets more tricky or “gray”. Alternative real estate investments, like a mobile home park, for example, use the “cap rate” terminology. Technically, it is real estate, so the term does apply. But, a cap rate on a mobile home park is not the same as on an apartment building (speaking generally, now- because locations of properties come into play here, also). A mobile home park in the middle of nowhere may generate a 12% return or a “12 cap”, but, because its in the middle of nowhere, and because its potential to be another type of investment, say, a condominium complex, does not exist, one cannot compare it to a “12 cap” investment in a busy suburb or small city, where the real estate has potential to be a lot more someday.

Hotels and motels also should not go by “cap rates” because they have significant operational issues that make them more akin to running a business than the more passive activity of collecting rent (though, of course, it’s never very passive). These businesses are tied to many things that real estate- especially apartments- is not tied to. For example, travel and airline issues, the parts of the economy that affect tourism, and local labor pools for customer service and cleaning. So, hospitality property sales prices should not be measured by “cap rates”. These kinds of properties have other standards of measurement, such as “revpar” and earnings.

So, although a “cap rate” is a “cap rate”, when comparing investments and cap rates, part of the analysis is the upside potential of the investment- not just the income. If you compare apples to lemons, what is, otherwise, a good cap rate if it were an apple, may really be a bad cap rate, or simply a bad investment, if it lacks any real potential to appreciate- and it’s really a lemon, a good cap rate notwithstanding. Further, where part of the analysis of a property, such as in the case of a hospitality property, includes the need to evaluate operational and economic issues beyond just adding up rental income and calculating the cost of maintaining the physicality of the property- but includes servicing customers- the use of “cap rates” to measure asking prices is not proper.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
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Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
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The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 9 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

“Synchronized Global Growth” Is Now “Synchronized Global Slowth™”

A phrase first coined in 2018 New York City business attorney, Neil Steven Siskind, “synchronized global slowth™” (or “synchronous slowth™”) is the occurrence or condition of multiple emerging market and developed market economies commencing a downward trajectory of economic and GDP growth, or actually contracting to a point of slow, stagnant, or negative economic and GDP growth, at simultaneous, or nearly simultaneous times, largely, or, at least in part, due to rising interest rates and/or stricter lending regulations (such as rising reserve requirement ratios and stricter bank balance sheet requirements) in the larger, more developed or fully developed economies, such as the United States and China, resulting in diminished liquidity in those economies, and, thus, diminished liquidity and less available dollars in smaller, or emerging economies, in turn. Slowing consumer demand and business spending in the larger more developed economies that result from a constrictive monetary policy, results in less export business for the smaller emerging economies which often depend on the larger economies to buy their goods, and in further economic slowth. Rising interest rates in the larger developed markets force weaker emerging markets to, likewise, consider raising their own interest rates to protect their respective currencies, even as their economies weaken- further expanding the breadth and enhancing the depth of global economic slowth. Currency issues resulting from rising rates or tighter lending rules, play a particularly large role in “synchronized global slowth” as the U.S. dollar strengthens from rising interest rates, making repayment of the dollar-denominated debt of many countries more costly to repay, creating additional global slowth. Political factors, such as trade disputes in large economies leading to trade barriers, including, tariffs, may also play a role in the occurrence of “synchronized global slowth”.