Retail: Here’s What Stores Will Look Like In 5 Years- By NEIL SISKIND

Probably in less than 5 years …

As voice products, like Siri and Alexa, are enhanced, and as seamless devices that put the Internet all around us at all times, such as products like Google Glass, and as last mile delivery is perfected- people will order products on the move, at-will, and without time spent browsing in stores, parking their cars, waiting in lines, dealing with other shoppers’ flu germs in winter, driving and shopping in bad weather, carrying packages, looking for restrooms, managing their young children in stores, and carrying around their credit and debit cards.

As the result, mall and strip center owners are struggling to determine how to use their spaces going forward. Many are, incorrectly, attempting to make their shopping areas into entertainment destinations. This will fail for many reasons. First, people are, in general, rejecting local entertainment facilities- including the movies. Going to the mall to be entertained will not happen. Second, there can only be so much entertainment in a community. Every strip center can’t become an entertainment facility. Third, brick and mortar store purchases will mostly be made up of food purchases in the future (except as described below), and there is only so much food a community can support- and food vendors can only pay “so-much” rent.

As a general principle, in the (near) future, retail space will be used only to compliment e-commerce. Landlords should position their properties for such complimentary purpose, rather than double-down on efforts towards “in-person activities”, like shopping or entertainment, which are in such property owners’ comfort zones, because for brick and mortar owners, the shopping process is going to get more and more uncomfortable, unless they properly adapt.

Retail space owners would be smarter to position their brick and mortar store spaces to benefit from the following retail uses:

1. We will not shop in stores. But, we will shop at large national retailers, since their scale will make it efficient and cost effective. So, Walmart, Target, T.J. Maxx, Costco, etc., will still provide brick and mortar places to buy products (and these stores will likely have social areas inside of them- coffee bars, etc.).

2.  Other than as described above, stores will be used only as follows:

(i) As showrooms for e-tailers’ products that can be ordered online, as we shop. So, there will be 5 or 10 of each product in an actual store for viewing, and we will order the products right there and then, on our mobile devices, for home delivery. Stores will not hold much inventory other than for display. This usage of stores as showrooms, will include “permanent presences” as well as temporary/pop-up stores;

(ii) storefronts will be used as pickup points for items we order online from home. A storefront will receive and hold items that have been paid for online and then shipped to the store for consumer pick-up. Such storefronts may be a branded store of the retailer at which we made the online purchase- or the storefront may just be an independently-owned pick-up point;

(iii) stores will be “showcases” for service providers in local areas. This will include pop-up “expos” for a day or a month for certain services. For example: a pop-up wedding expo that lasts for a week that rents booths and tables to vendors of various wedding related services located in our respective neighborhoods;

(iv) stores will be street-side “offices” for services that want the retail exposure- attorneys, accountant, party-planners, insurance agents. Good retail space used to be too costly for this use, forcing such businesses into office buildings, where they lacked consumers visibility. Growth in online commerce, and, thus, retail vacancies, will change this dynamic.

All of this will certainly lead to lower rents and a lower need for retail space. There is no question about that. So, while none of this will be a panacea for all existing retail properties, re-positioning properties as needed, to address the demand of the digital economy, will help owners whose properties are located in places that can benefit from the continuing evolution and growth of e-commerce.

___________________________________________

endnote

Shopping is, of course, not the only way to use land. There will be many “non-shopping” creative uses of property going forward. This article is limited to addressing how landlords need to address and manage their brick and mortar stores to keep them relevant in retail’s evolution.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Is The U.S. Dollar (And The 10 Yr. Yield, And The Fed, And Stagnant Wages) Forecasting A Housing Crash?

During the start of the housing crisis in 2007, the yield curve (the difference between the 2 yr. note and the 30 yr. bond) was basically flat, even slightly inverted. Today, the yield curve (looking at 10s and 2s), while moving a bit lately, is nearly flat, and has been for some time. Is history repeating itself, causing currency investors to fear a housing crisis due to a housing bubble that can’t end well?

While the Fed funds rate and the 2 yr. yield are headed higher (which, normally, should shore-up support for the dollar), higher rates are not a housing bubble panacea- just the opposite. Rate increases (especially if longer term yields follow the 2 yr. higher), of course, may trigger a retreat in home prices and a bursting of a bubble. Thus, higher interest rates will not, necessarily, appease currency investors.

Overseas investors have, unquestionably, played a major role in the U.S. real estate market over the past five years. And overseas currency investors have more insight into their collective real estate investing practices in the U.S. than we have, ourselves. If Asian investors know that they will be pulling-back on housing investments in the U.S. (due to rising rates, better local or international investment opportunities, or fears of a real estate bubble), and know that they have invested significantly in U.S. housing over the past few years- then they also know that any significant pull-back in their investments will negatively affect housing prices. If this ends in the popping of a housing bubble, the Fed will have to cut the Fed funds rate (as it did in 2007), hurting the dollar. If currency investors believe otherwise, then with a rising 2 yr. interest rate, projections of solid earnings-growth, tax-cut stimuli, and low inflation, the dollar would be strengthening. Right?

Currency investors appear to be fearing “asset” inflation that could suddenly, or eventually, reverse.

A significant problem at this stage is that interest rates remaining at present levels –“or”– interest rates increasing, would, both, be bad news for housing. Currency investors may fear that rates staying as they are, would stoke the fires of a bubble- while rising rates could pop one. Either scenario could, or would, cause investors to sell dollars.

Regardless of the timing of a popping of a housing bubble (whether the bubble is made worse with low rates before it pops, or if it pops at a closer point in time due to rate increases now), the Fed, ultimately, would cut its funds rates (in addition to other measures) in order to manage such a situation, as it did in 2007. Cutting rates in a housing crisis could lead to lower 10 yr. and long-bond yields- because in 2008, a “higher” long bond yield that followed Fed rate cuts (creating a 300 basis point long bond and 2 yr. note spread) was followed by a total economic crash because of the housing crisis. This time, bond investors may foresee a wider recession ahead following a housing crash, and, consequentially, may not sell bonds and buy stocks, as they did in 2007-2008 (which was, ultimately, deadly for equity investors). They may “buy” bonds- and this would weaken the dollar even further, where low interest rates plus low (or no) growth would be the outcomes.

One might argue that the dollar is weak (and the 10 yr. note, holding) simply because growth will be tepid, and nothing more. The problem with that idea is that the Fed has promised to keep raising its funds rate. Why? Likely because it, like currency investors, fears asset inflation. There would be no other reason to keep raising rates in a slow-growth environment. The Fed would do just the opposite. It would be floating hints at rate cuts. So, the Fed, the dollar, and bonds may all be working in concert at this moment in their fears of inflated assets bursting and causing recession. I can’t think of any other reason why both currency and bond investors would persist in fighting the Fed, and why the Fed keeps raising its funds rate where no inflation is evident at all.

One might think that if the herein scenario were valid, that dollar sellers, who see bubbles with the potential to burst, consequently leading to to recession, and consequently, leading to lower interest rates, would be buyers of bonds. Have a look at how the 10 yr. treasury yield has hardly budged over the past months. So, things may be adding-up in that regard.

Market watchers have been concerned that China may sell our bonds. If China has concerns about a U.S. recession that could spill over to to its own economy (and to the rest of the world), it could be doing just the opposite- going out of the dollar, out of U.S. real estate, potentially out of U.S. equities, and into the U.S. 10 year treasury note. And there (among other factors) may be your yield curve that has been nearly flat for some time[1].

Selling of the dollar, buying of bonds, flat 10 yr. and long-bond yields, raising of short term rates, lack of wage pressures, lower taxes- it all sounds completely inconsistent and irreconcilable; unless you consider that it all points to asset bubbles that could burst … in which case, it all sounds quite consistent and sensible.

____________________________

fn

  1. It has been reported that Chinese officials recently made comments that China is considering slowing, or even stopping, its purchase of U.S. government debt. Of course, such (alleged) comments could be intended to cause political troubles for the White House; but, I think such (alleged) comments are being made, primarily, as an effort by China to depress bond prices so that it can enter the markets at lower prices. There is no benefit, and much downside, for China from a slower U.S economy with higher interest rates. It’s hard to accept that these (alleged) comments are anything more than parts of self-serving political and financial strategies which lack any intention by China of being implemented as stated.

 

endnotes

  1. Let’s not forget that real estate, specifically retail real estate (and non-urban office space, too), has been in decline for years due to the e-commerce and Amazon (and in the case of offices, due to WeWork, and to people embracing technology in order to work from home). This has, likely, already created problems for banks that have financed such commercial properties. Vacancies are bad for lenders. This problem goes to the potential for bank liquidity problems in a housing crisis. This may be a concern of dollar sellers.
  2. If future CPI, PPI, and/or wage data indicate inflation or inflationary pressures and the 10 yr. yield rises, then the Fed, the dollar, and the 10 yr. would be in sync in their fears of inflation- rather then recession, in which case, my base case would, likewise, change. In such case, the dollar would have been right, and the 10 yr. would have been wrong, In the case of a rising Fed funds rate along with a rising 10 yr. yield, the dollar may then appreciate, all, in concert, alleviating inflation (or inflation expectations).
  3. The dollar continuing to sink, would, of course, “cause” inflation. If this occurs, and it pushes the 10 yr. yield higher, while bond investors, otherwise, see no inflation (in prices or in wages) and have recession concerns based on asset bubbles, this could be a worse-case scenario. We could have asset inflation without price or wage inflation (or, stagflation) while interest rates rise, which would lead to a terrible recession.
  4. If, as has been theorized, investors are concerned about some of President Trump’s trade policies, and/ or see greater value in the currencies of other countries, then why are U.S. bond markets staying strong? Buyers are still buying U.S. based assets. Perhaps, this is where currency investors are going as dollar alternatives, and not to other currencies.
  5. In the years leading to the 2006-2007 housing crisis, the U.S. received large amounts of foreign money from fast growing Asian economies, the stock market and housing market were fast-growing, technology companies and stocks were fast-growing, wages and productivity were stagnant, and oil prices were strong. Any of this sound familiar?

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Why Is The Dollar Weak And Long Bond Yields Low?

Why is the dollar weak and long bond yields low when we know that the Fed is on a rate hiking trajectory? Why is the dollar not strengthening?

Is there a fear that long bond yields are not going up? Still, though, the 2 year rising should shore-up the dollar.

A weak dollar can cause fear of inflation. But interest rates are really not showing this. People are not really selling bonds in any significant way.

International investors may be selling the dollar while “buying” U. S.bonds, which they, presumably, believe will go higher (sending yields lower)?

Do overseas investors think that interest rates will remain low? In other words, do international investors see recession on our horizon? Or do they simply see lack of wage and pricing power?

If they see lack of wage and pricing power, and, thus, long bond rates remaining low, they, like us, would still have to be concerned about asset inflation with persistent low rates. Thus, they would see rising yields in the future and buy the dollar, rather than sell it.

So- do overseas investors see stock and or real estate bubbles that they believe will come home to roost and burst, forcing the Fed funds rate, the 2 year, and 10 and 30 years lower?

If international investors have been putting a lot of money into U.S. real estate and stocks, and therefore, know of the risk there as they seek to pull out and diversify internationally, then this could explain their desire for bonds and their fear of the dollar. As overseas investors see the Fed raising rates, they could believe that the long bond will follow and they want out of U.S. real estate.

They may just see no increases in the long bond coming, which they know would, likely, lead to real estate inflation. So, it could be a recession, and big rate cuts, and maybe even more Q/E, that dollar investors fear.

Long bond yields going up, or staying down could both cause real estate fear; fear of a bubble burst in the short run from higher bond yields- or fear of further inflation in prices from low bond yields leading to a 2007-like pop.

 

3 Technologies That Will Really Change Things

Google glasses and similar products want the Internet to be all around us at all times.

Voice products, such as Siri and Alexa, want us to be able to interact with the Internet, verbally and seemlessly, from anywhere.

Amazon’s last mile of delivery to our homes, including of food, is something being, feverishly, worked-on.

The visual, the voice, and the on-demand of the Internet, making everything seamless- no typing, no fidgeting with gadgets, no delay of wants and needs- will change everything.

These are no small tasks, and, thus, have not been done successfully to date. But, they are, collectively, game changers for how we operate in our lives.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

A Hollywood Example Of How The World Has Changed

Actors used to want to be in commercials so that they can be discovered and get on TV or into a movie.

Now actors want to be known from TV so that they can get paid to do commercials and promote products.

Performers- particularly those on reality TV- will work for nothing because it leads to exposure, which allows them to create and sell their own product lines or market those of others.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

The Economy: Similarities Between Now And 2007-2008

-Low inflation

-Low wage growth

-Low productivity

-Low 2 year note interest rates

-Technology company growth

-Vast technology stock growth

-Real estate prices fueled by excessive liquidity

-Real estate prices fueled by house flipping

-Real estate out of whack with affordability

Interest rates in relation to assets, then, now, and going-forward:

Then:

In early 2007, the yield curve was flat. The curve was actually slightly inverted. The Fed cut rates and the slope eventually increased through March, 2008 to a spread of about 300 points between the long bond and the 2 year note. As the Fed cut rates- long bonds went in the opposite direction (so why market watchers are perplexed when the long bond doesn’t follow the 2 year is curious).

Short term rates were falling in early 2008 as the Fed had concerns about the housing crisis affecting the wider economy. Long term yields were rising. Almost the opposite of what we have now. The Fed was fueling an asset bubble (fueling stocks and general credit while trying to re-ignite housing) while it saw no wage pressures and little price inflation (which it had long attributed to high productivity- which was wrong). Bond investors, apparently, saw this as inflationary (even in the shadow of the housing crises). Bond investors were right in that there was asset inflation in stocks, but were not predicting recession with an inverted curve. So, the bond market missed it in this regard.

Now:

The long bond may rise now- not because of wage or price inflation- but because of asset inflation following years of Q/E, and now, tax cuts (even though the Fed funds rate and 2 year are rising). “Rising” long bond yields may be the best predictor of a recession- a recession due to asset inflation in this new era of persistent low rates vast liquidity. A steepening curve may be a better indicator of a recession than a flat or inverted curve in a high liquidity world where poor wage and price inflation and low growth are [over] compensated for with liquidity (and tax cuts), leading to asset (stock and/or real estate) inflation (or even crude inflation), and the eventual bursting of bubbles (primarily in real estate and, simultaneously, or consequently, stocks). At the least, a rising long bond may be required in order to precipitate an inverted curve and recession.

Going Forward:

In terms of interest rates where are we now compared to 2007-2008? We have potentially inflated assets- which the Fed is raising rates to manage. The long bond should be rising in agreement. Both the Fed and bond investors see asset inflation risk. In 2007, the asset bubble (housing) had already popped, which led the Fed to lower its rate several times. We don’t have a bubble pop yet, but if we do, we could see the Fed rate being cut while the long bond still stays elevated in fear of inflation when Fed cuts are combined with tax cuts. But the Fed would have to cut rates to manage the housing fall out. This time, if there is a real estate crash, the long bond may be more fearful of recession than inflation, due to 2008’s lessons. Plus- equity investors will be fearful of stocks if any asset class crashes and push bond yields ever lower, rather than stick with stocks this time (especially if stocks are the asset class that crashes). It’s likely that real estate is the asset class that crashes. In that case, we are more likely to see an inverted yield curve before we ever see a very steep yield curve. But, until such an asset bubble burst, we will see steepness before any recession.

 

Things to note:
– EPS growth targets going forward are largely due to stock buybacks (a low quality form of earnings). Lack of wage growth means lack of “quality” earnings growth due to consumer spending.
– Retail stores (and small e-commerce companies) are closing “en masse”. Employees of an entire segment of the economy- retail- have been, and are being displaced (Amazon and Walmart can’t hire “everyone”. In fact, Walmart’s Sam’s Club has laid people off).
– Tax cuts will not bring pricing power to those without it. They will result mostly in EPS growth only through buybacks and dividends- and, moreover, this only applies to “public” companies. Private businesses cannot buyback stock. So tax cuts for private companies will have small benefits to the broader economy. Small businesses struggling with pricing power and distribution will not engage in cap-ex nor will they give raises.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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The Yield Curve: Some Thoughts On Inflation And The 10 Year Treasury Yield

Economist, like Larry Kudlow, say that we can have growth without inflation. Even if true, that would be limited to “price” inflation, especially possible in this Amazon world. But it would require productivity growth, in a non-Amazon world, which we do not have. So, Amazon would have to be the main reason that we get growth without inflation. Amazon can not depress input costs, such as commodities, in a growing economy. Rather companies would be forced to eat the additional input cost so that they can compete with Amazon- not a great scenario.

But, growth without wage inflation is nearly impossible. Wage earners (i.e. most people, i.e. employees, i.e. consumers) have to make more to spend more. So you can’t have growth (more sales of products and services) without wage inflation.

“But”, companies can grow earnings by growing their overseas sales. Companies can also grow earning if there are more wage earners with money to spend (i.e. shrinking unemployment). So, this scenario, of growth without wage inflation that provides consumers with more spending money are companies with significant international sales. (Financial reporters and analysts only focus on “public” companies. Thousands of domestic, private, small businesses suffer when international sales are the only way to grow because they lack such sales. Let’s not forget this when analyzing the economy. The “numbers” need to be supplemented with our own eyes, ears, information, knowledge, and daily experiences because we, as employees and owners of private companies, and we, as consumers, deal more with local businesses, not international public companies. For every Dominoes Pizza that grows revenues, there are 300 local pizza shops that are losing money or closing.)

So growth without inflation? Growth with a flat yield curve?
Maybe. For the time being, at least.

The Fed is out to protect the dollar. This can also help stave-off inflation and stave-off higher long term rates. So the 10 year may actually be applauding the Fed rate hikes (to which the 2 year responds). This may be keeping the 10 year in check (rather than causing it to rise)- counter-intuitive, perhaps.

But, earnings growth through oversees sales and lower unemployment still likely won’t help the problem of overpriced real estate. No matter how many people are working, or how many products are sold overseas, U.S. housing has a ceiling based on income growth in the U.S. (the entry level home market can stay stronger for a while longer, due to low employment; but the higher-end is at risk because of all the speculation. Of course, there is speculation at the entry level end as well).

Even overseas investors buying and selling U.S. bonds or raising their own interest rates or changing their own Q/E policies can’t alter and obviate the effects of a liquidity flooded U.S. real estate market.

Housing is the risk in this economy. The 2007-2008 elements appear to be in place to, at least, some degree. A disconnect between wage and income growth and housing is dangerous. It would be interesting to know more about underwriting standards across the country these days. We know that house and condo flipping is still going full speed ahead.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

NEIL SISKIND POETRY

To A Young Cub
by Neil S. Siskind

Inspired, you inquire as to the boldness of the lion and the lioness;
but, too, in you, beats a warrior’s heart.
Perhaps, for naught, counseled is the cub as she matures under cover;
only on first roar, at predator or prey, is her bravado truly realized,
only on first hunt, without her mother, comes her reckoning of her strength.
Fear-not the wild and the inclement places that demand your awakening,
for, it is your hunts, on your own, those with either failure or success, that will inculcate in you the boldness of the beasts by which you are awed.

E-commerce And The Death Of “Community” In America- By NEIL SISKIND

Shopping mall and strip center owners are struggling to maintain tenancies and survive in an e-commerce world. Most mall owners and developers have the idea that they will add entertainment and create town square environments in order to attract shoppers. But town squares need renters- and renters have to believe that they can make money by selling things. Every store can’t be a restaurant. And there is surely a limit on how much food a town can support.

One important piece about the consumer experience, the piece that technology purveyors and consumers, alike, have left out of their analyses of the benefits of low prices and convenience, is that buying our clothing, and our food, and our toiletrees, and gifts for our loved ones, all, since time in memorial, required us, as citizens of communities, to interact with, and therefore get to know, our neighbors, our store owners, our bank tellers, our waiters and waitresses, our boutique managers, our fellow car drivers on our streets, and our fellow shoppers. We need to trust each other in our public forums that we will be provided with some level of safety, and decency, and courtesy, even friendliness. This is what “community” is- people, implicitly, working together in a system, using the same services and resources with the same overall goals. These are the social contracts that bind us. The media loves to write about these ideas and concepts taking place in our offices- but what about in our neighborhoods?

In the future, the very near future, how will we have gathering places in our communities if everyone shops on the Internet? Sure, there will be Whole Foods and WalMarts- but these are not places for people to meet-up and spend time. Without small retail stores, supermarkets, ice cream parlors, boutiques, drug stores (and the strip centers and malls in which they locate), we won’t have places to gather and interact- except Starbucks.

And if a town has no physical location for interactions by its community, it can have no spiritual sense of community. We must be able to meet, greet, and interact with each other with pleasantries, and in business- face to face- or we will lose the souls of our communities for sure. If we don’t interact with our neighbors (offline), we can’t really know our neighbors; if we don’t really know our neighbors, we can’t respect our neighbors; if we can’t respect our neighbors, we won’t trust our neighbors; if we don’t trust our neighbors, we won’t love our neighbors; if we don’t love our neighbors, we won’t look-out for our neighbors; if we don’t have neighbors looking-out for neighbors, we won’t be safe and secure; if we are not safe and secure, we won’t be happy and healthy.

This is how life works. We must interact with, listen to, respect, aid, and trust our neighbors in order to have a safe and successful society- and happy, healthy lives.

What is the next iteration- deciding that all our children should be educated at home from the Internet, in a secluded room, so that their knowledge intake per minute can be maximized- so that no other student interrupts our own child’s train of thought and opportunity to learn new facts? Socializing with people is as valuable to quality of life as is maximizing price and time results, acquisition of knowledge, wealth creation, and advancing new technologies- more so, actually. Statistics and data prove it. Community and socialization with others, or lack of these elements, impact happiness. Sacrificing these elements for technological conveniences is detrimental and unconscionable. There is no long-term purpose or benefit.

The suburban blight of empty stores is compounding societal problems borne of technology. Stores, by and large, are becoming shells of their former selves- filled only with nail salons, coffee cafes, and empty spaces that we drive by on our way back and forth to work and school and social events. The hears and souls of communities are dying. We must have pride in our communities. Empty storefronts don’t inspire us. They remind us that our lives are no longer about what’s across the street- but more about what can be bought from across the world. We hear of how China’s middle class has grown- while ours is disappearing; and we continue to do nothing about it.

Get offline and go shopping in your town! And not at a national or big-box retailer- but at a store owned by one of your neighbors; and after you shop there, don’t go write mean things on Yelp- it’s not nice. It’s not neighborly, it’s classless, it’s rude, and it’s helping to destroy the small businessmen and businesswomen in our own communities. It’s no different than writing things about people in your town on the bathroom wall in your high school. It’s just stupid. Why would someone do that in their own “community” so that a giant website or big box retailer can come steal community members’ businesses- and take over our lives? It’s perplexing. We’re supposed to stick together in communities and not help some giant corporations destroy us. The more you insult businesses in your own neighborhoods over the Internet, the more empty stores and restaurants there will be in your neighborhood- and the less opportunities you will have for yourself close to home- and the lower the employment rate in your community will be. This is how violence and opioid abuse begins- lack of opportunity, lack of hope, lack of faith, lack of community, lack of belief that others have sympathy or concern.

Communities must begin to stick together. We must socialize in real life- not on Facebook. We must shop locally- not on Amazon; We must share entertainment in public places- not on Netflix. We must play together, face to face- not on Xbox. We must learn about each other from each other- not from Google. We must converse- not text; and we must not disparage our local businesses on Yelp, or bully our schoolmates on social media.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

Will Raises And Bonuses Be Inflationary? Maybe Not- By NEIL SISKIND

Remember that raises are not tax cuts. Raises and bonuses are monies transferred from businesses to individuals. So consumers have more money- but businesses have less. Some businesses have simply decided that instead of keeping X dollars of revenues, they will allow employees to have X dollars of revenues. This is different than if businesses paid employees exactly the same amounts of money and then the government took less from the employee in the form of a tax cut. In such case, both businesses “and” employees would have more money to spend. A raise in salary or a bonus is a net transfer of wealth from one “spender” to another “spender”. In fact, some would argue that a dollar spent by the consumer has less of a multiplicative value to the economy than if that same dollar was spent by a business (in cap-ex or what have you). So, in this regard, raises and bonuses may actually be less inflationary than if a respective business kept and spent that dollar. They may actually be “deflationary” in that they take away money that a company could have invested to create jobs through cap-ex (causing increases in labor demand, wages, and commodity prices) and puts those monies in less inflationary hands. Again, if there were a tax cut to employees by the government rather than a bonus or raise to employees from businesses, there would be more potential for inflation where it’s clear that a dollar spent by a consumer is more stimulative to the economy than a dollar taken and spent (read: wasted) by the government.

In any event, regardless of the source of more monies to employees, consumer spending may not lead to PPI and CPI inflation where structural issues in the economy, including Amazon, are forcing downward pricing pressures on businesses in order to compete. Companies lacking pricing power will not, necessarily, get pricing power just because consumers have more money in their paychecks; and consumers may just spend more money in the same ways they have been- more Amazon, more TJMaxx, more Apple, more Netflix.

______________________________________________

endnote

Whether tax cuts that directly benefit consumers have an effect on inflation is outside the scope of this article.