Here’s Why You Can’t Go By Stock Market Talk- by Neil Siskind

If 30 “public” companies have strong earnings- stocks can go up. If, simultaneously, “100” private businesses close their doors in, let’s say, New Hampshire, laying off 2,000 people-  then, in such case, stocks of public companies can rise while many private businesses close-up shop and people lose jobs. So- let’s say that, because of job losses, the New Hampshire housing market starts feeling pain, while 30 public companies located in San Jose, California, raised their earnings by selling more widgets in China and Singapore- what happens?

Now, let’s say the New Hampshire problem also occurred in Florida and Texas.

Now what?

So- the point is that for every 30 companies that cause the Wall Street Journal or CNBC to say that corporate earnings are up, we have private companies- ones that you never hear about- closings their doors, or losing money, or laying off people all across America.

Stock market earnings do not represent the economy. This is why housing markets crashed in 2007. What they say on TV for the companies they follow- “public” companies- is different than the experiences of the mass of people and businesses across the country. For every Microsoft that had great earnings, there are 300 tech companies across America that are treading water or losing money and jobs.

Here’s an easy way to understand it. Let’s say only 1 company in every industry was public. And let’s say that for those companies, individually, and collectively, earnings are up 15%. Now lets say, the other 1,000 companies in each of these industries is a private company and their earnings went down 7%. So, the stock market can go up based on what it follows. But the economy- consumer spending and housing- would go down. And then, because spending is going down, even those public companies would be negatively affected by what is happening in the “real economy”.

In addition, because of the scale offered by the Internet and how companies like Amazon are overtaking entire industries, large companies and large public companies, do not represent the experiences of small businesses and private companies. In fact, the large public businesses with scale, more than ever in history, are in much stronger positions and much different positions than the rest of American companies it heir same industries.

The stock market is not the economy. But the economy- all the other businesses that are not in the stock market and what they are experiencing- can, eventually, determine the stock market (see year 2007).

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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As Long As We Avoid The “Economic Bermuda Triangle” – by NEIL S. SISKIND

The economy is strong and can remain so, unless we fly into the Economic Bermuda Triangle, which is comprised of the following 3 elements:

1. A “too-weak” dollar; and
2. a “too-high” 10 year treasury note yield; and
3. stagnant (or substantially stagnant) wages and incomes.

We have already flown near and circled this Triangle. Element 2 above has not quite been reached. Some projections have us avoiding the Triangle through higher wages, and, maybe, through a stabilizing dollar, depending on Federal Reserve and ECB policies (The BOJ does not concern me). 10 yr. yields will depend on the aforesaid elements (rising yields, and the Fed, so far, have not determined the dollar direction – rather, it is responding to it).

Higher wages can help offset dollar weakness and/or higher yields.

Wages are the key to the future of the economy. Higher rates and/or a weaker dollar without higher wages is economically terminal. Consumers and homebuyers must be able to afford more products, services, and homes- or nothing else works.

If we fail to avoid this Economic Bermuda Triangle, it will be big trouble for the consumer and the homebuyer- and, thus, for businesses and the economy.

Let’s not forget, I believe the the dollar and the 10 yr. are possibly looking at U.S. real estate assets. If they see bubble risk there, neither may strengthen. If wages do not rise, that bubble-risk multiplies, especially if the dollar stays weak and forces the 10 yr. higher.

It all comes down to incomes. Relative currency strength, repatriation, and other technical factors, mean less than whether U.S. housing is lined up with consumer incomes and expenses (salaries, dollars, borrowing costs, gas). The continued separation of product (gas) and housing costs from incomes is the big risk to markets.

Rates will rise from here “only if” the dollar refuses to rise and remains inflationary and/or due to the Fed selling treasuries. Rates will not rise for any other reasons. Rates rising due to dollar weakness,or due to the Fed sales, without incomes rising, will be the worst case scenario.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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Sexual Harassment In The U.S. And Worldwide – by NEIL SISKIND

U.S. lawmakers and U.S. society are taking sexual harassment in politics and business (including in the entertainment business) to task. Revelations of businessmen’s and politicians’ actions have led to them to step down from important positions and offices.

Businesses are seeing vital executives leaving their positions, affecting business brands and companies’ futures.

America is progressive, and tough about equal rights. I can hardly imagine the sexual harassment that has been going on in other countries and societies- Italy, Russia, China- for many years … for hundreds of years, and still happening. I wonder if, and when, fall- out from sexual harassment in other societies will begin to occur.

Will multiple businesses worldwide come under pressure if and when we learn that their cultures are steeped in sexual harassment- more than anything we have seen in the U.S.?

How many businesses will be affected across the globe? How many stocks will be hit? How may entire companies in foreign nations will be destroyed when their cultures of harassment come to light? Because it is coming. If it’s happening some, or lots, in America- then it’s happening in droves and in abundance in other, less woman- friendly, and less socially-progressive places.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

 

Amazon Could Kill the Economy- by NEIL SISKIND

Health insurance stocks are selling off today. Amazon (along with others) announced its determination to enter into the health care mix- which always means lower prices. But, as industries need to compete with Amazon, they must learn to do more with less. This keeps businesses from raising prices, and, thus, from raising wages. Economies can’t grow unless incomes grow. People can’t buy more products and services, or buy more real estate, without more money. It’s simple economics. Especially as the dollar weakens or interest rates rise, people need more money to live. Just “saving” money on things won’t be enough. The dollar may be reflecting this concern of a lack of growth, and the 10 yr., if it stays stubbornly low, will be further confirmation of the dollar’s concerns of a lack of real future growth.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

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It’s All About Incomes

Higher interest rates are not terribly worrisome- if incomes also rise.

Economic growth from here requires income growth.

If anything goes up without incomes going up, the economy will be in big trouble. Oil, interest rates, business costs, even consumer spending if its from savings (rather than from income growth) … if any of this goes higher without wage and income growth going higher,  it is bad news.

Business spending (more cap ex) will not help things UNLESS it leads to wage growth. Businesses need people to buy their products and services.

Business earnings won’t grow unless wages grow- and even if earnings do grow- there will be a cap on how far they can grow thereafter, and on how much the economy and stocks can grow, without income growth.

If the dollar weakens, which means incomes have gone down, this very bad news, especially if interest rates climb at the same time.

Operating Agreement- Executed- Finally! By Neil S. Siskind

It took over 6 months to complete an LLC operating agreement among 5 members (a/k/a business partners). We, the attorneys, started this agreement when it was still warm out (August)! In some of these cases, one attorney represents the entire company. I have actually been in this position as well. In such situations, all LLC members needed to sign-off that I represent “the company” and not any individual member. For attorneys, it it easier to handle these situation with one attorney than as in this most recent scenario, where every member had his own attorney- which you can imagine, is not easy. The way to handle these situations is through the partners– meaning that if you have 5 partners who get in a room and all agree they really want to make the business work, they need to be instructed to instruct their attorneys to work nicely, and responsively, and with each other. As attorneys, we are agents of our clients and have many jobs- one of which is to carry out the client’s wishes (while, of course, protecting their interests). So, all of the attorneys involved must do our job of getting the client what he wants. This agreement took time, but it was a solid, professional, and successful job- and took a lot of hours.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

CNBC Never Reports When Its Traders Were Way Wrong

CNBC only gives updates on stocks that its Fast Money and Mad Money traders were right about … but the wrong calls disappear into stock heaven. Listen to anyone on CNBC- and you will go broke.

Caution: Here’s Why Real Estate Is A Risk To The Economy And To The Stock Market- By NEIL S. SISKIND

Watch CNBC for a bit. The traders all say, over and over, they can’t see any risk in the stock market. That’s because- as in 2005, 2006, and 2007- they don’t really understand how real estate works. They never talk about real estate at-length or in-depth, or in relation to incomes, consumer spending, corporate earnings, and stock growth- even though it is all related- as we saw in 2006-2008- and in the financial horror show for years thereafter.

Houses are most Americans’ most valuable asset. You need income growth to have housing growth. It’s pretty simple. So, too, is the converse- without income growth you won’t have housing growth[1]. It doesn’t just grow by itself. There’s no intrinsic value to houses.

Retail property is getting hammered due to e-commerce and Amazon. Don’t you think those property owners and their lenders have been hurt as their tenancies have dwindled? Someone has to pay the taxes and mortgages.

There is a plethora of excess office space outside of large urban markets due to WeWork, uses of office suite companies where people can pay to use addresses, and technology helping people work from home- or from wherever. Don’t you think the owners and lenders with empty office properties get hurt by high vacancies that have exploded in the past few years?

Analysts and traders will argue that there is no systemic risk due to real estate lending, as in 2006-2007. So what? You don’t need systemic risk to have economic risk or stock market risk.

In fact, the only reason the stock market rose in 2007 was because of systemic risk. The Fed added vast amounts of liquidity to the economy through Q/E after the housing crisis, while significantly lowering interest rates in order to push investors into riskier assets (stocks) and out of the safety of treasuries. So, if there was “no” systemic risk, the stock market would not have grown as it did following the great real estate crash. Look how that ended for equities.

During the start of the housing crisis in 2007, the yield curve (the difference between the 2 yr. note and the 30 yr. bond) was basically flat, even slightly inverted. Today, the yield curve (looking at 10s and 2s), while moving a bit lately, is nearly flat, and has been for some time, and the dollar is weakening. Yet- the Fed is promising to raise interest rates (even before the dollar weakened!). Do investors and the Fed fear that there is an asset bubble (on the heels of years of low rates and Q/E, and where wages are stagnant)?

Here are 9 reasons why housing (and, more broadly, real estate) presents a risk to the economy and the stock market:

1. Wages are not growing. People can’t buy more houses with stagnant incomes[2];
2. wages are not growing. People can’t buy more houses with stagnant incomes, especially as the weakening dollar makes their real incomes even lower;
3. the weakening dollar is making real incomes lower while making imports and commodities, like oil and gasoline, costlier, acting as a tax on potential homebuyers;
4. the weakening dollar may be forecasting a housing asset bubble that will end badly;
5. the weakening dollar, combined with a flattening yield curve, combined with the Fed raising rates, may, together, be forecasting asset bubble-popping concerns. In 2007, equities investors bought stocks after a housing crisis, which ended very badly. This time, investors may buy bonds- after their harsh lessons in 2008- causing lower growth in a housing recession. This may be why the dollar and 10 yr. yield are so low (even while the Fed has been raising its rate!) – because in a housing crash, they expect the economy and rates to be subdued;
6. the Fed may have to raise interest rates due to dollar weakness (which is causing real incomes to go lower, imports to go up in cost, and commodity prices to rise), which will increase business expenses, affecting jobs and stock returns;
7. the Fed may have to raise interest rates due to dollar weakness (which is causing real incomes to go lower, imports to go up in cost, and commodity prices to rise), which will increase home-buyers’ borrowing costs;
8. a weakening dollar is a disincentive to overseas investors putting money in U.S. property; and
9. a combination of defaults in retail real estate, office properties, and houses could, indeed, present systemic problems to banks and to the financial system.

As for investor perceptions of housing, as measured by the dollar and treasury yields: Market watchers have been concerned that China may sell our bonds. If China has concerns about an impending U.S. recession following the burst of an asset bubble that could spill over to its own economy (and to the rest of the world), it could be doing just the opposite- going out of the dollar, out of U.S. real estate, potentially out of U.S. equities, and into the U.S. 10 year treasury note[3]. And there (among other factors) may be your yield curve that has been nearly flat for some time. As for the dollar, if currency investors believe in the strength of the U.S. economy, then with a rising 2 yr. interest rate, projections of solid earnings growth, tax-cut stimuli, and low inflation, the dollar would be strengthening. Right? But rate hikes and growth projections and low inflation data, are, seemingly, being followed by a weakening dollar.

Here’s something else to consider: House prices going higher due to low supplies may not indicate a strong real estate market, as the media has it. Just as in a weak housing market, if people can’t afford to buy homes, they just “stay put”. Low supplies of houses translates to higher prices- but, we must look beneath the numbers to reconcile the root cause of low supplies. Income growth is, surely, not the reason. Why are people not able to relocate to new homes when they want to? This is not a “positive” economic indicator, no matter how market analysts attempt to spin it. It may be because of too many investors in the system, resulting from too much liquidity over the past number of years (since the financial crisis began)[4]. It may be because people bought homes, inexpensively, immediately following the housing crisis and ensuing financial crisis, using cheap debt, which depleted inventories at very low prices. We can’t now replace our homes for the same or similar money, even though unemployment is low- which reflects a problem with incomes, and reveals a weak consumer who can’t and won’t leave his/her present home. It comes down to affordability. Incomes and prices have to be in line (a/k/a affordability) for a housing market to be healthy. Markets must return to an equilibrium to get people transacting. The Fed may be in agreement, causing it to continually raise the Fed funds rate in the face of low inflation to prevent any further market imbalance. Interest rates (including longer term treasury note yields that usually, though not always, follow the 2 yr. yield higher) are tools the Fed can use to get sellers to lower their asking prices, getting them more in line with incomes, as well as take the short term investor out of the market. Of course, the same tools can pop a bubble and have harsh ramifications.

As in any market scenario, if people, en masse, hold onto assets and no one sells, then prices can be maintained. But this is rarely the case in markets composed, even in part, of investors- or in markets of assets that require payments of carrying costs by the asset holders (such as mortgage and tax payments). Often, one class of asset holders is prompted by some catalyst(s) to sell (or to halt any further buying). For example, rate re-sets on variable rate loans, job losses, currency fluctuations or other overseas issues that limit overseas buyers continued participation in local markets, or short term investors’ greater-than-expected number of days on market, can all prompt selling in an asset class, which then snowballs to affect the remaining holders.

In the years leading to the 2006-2007 housing crisis, the U.S. received large amounts of foreign money from fast-growing Asian economies, the stock market and housing market were fast growing, technology companies and stocks were fast growing, wages and productivity were stagnant, oil prices were strong, and the yield curve was flat. Any of this sound familiar?

 

________________________

1. But, it actually goes much further than this. Housing is a function of incomes, but, in the modern economy, it’s also a function of home lending legislation, of banking practices, and of Fed policy in managing markets. So, housing is not simply a by-product of growth or declines in business and stocks, as people in the financial industry treat it, and, therefore, hardly discuss it in a meaningful way. The housing market has a life of its own that affectsbusiness and equities markets- just as it did in the 2006-2007 period (and thereafter). So, any complete analysis of stocks and bonds requires a similar complete analysis of housing prices, which can affect risks in these markets. Business earnings can grow by exporting products and/or by buying back shares, and businesses can enhance their technologies for operational efficiency, but, if incomes remain stagnant, or the dollar weakens significantly, or interest rates tick-up, or bank lending standards tighten, or oil and gas prices rise, housing markets can fail- affecting stocks and bonds, and leading to stock declines (due to bank liquidity issues, lay-offs in real estate related businesses, and/or consumer spending freezes), even while businesses grow through exports, while benefiting from a lack of significant wage pressures and from relatively low business-borrowing interest rates.
2. Another problem is that even if wages rise, so will interest rates, which is, generally, not good for home prices and cap rates. But, where housing is concerned, this would be a far better reason for rates to rise than to deflate an asset bubble or due to dollar weakness, or any reason that does not include higher incomes.
3. It has been reported that Chinese officials recently made comments that China is considering slowing, or even stopping, its purchase of U.S. government debt. Of course, such (alleged) comments could be intended to cause political troubles for the White House; but, I think such (alleged) comments are, potentially, being made, primarily, as an effort by China to depress bond prices so that it can enter bond markets at lower prices. There is no benefit, and much downside, for China from a slower U.S economy with higher interest rates. It’s hard to accept that these (alleged) comments are anything more than parts of self-serving political and financial strategies which lack any intention by China of being implemented as stated.
4. Apartment rents have been heading downward, including in highly desired cities, for a couple of years. Investors, during the housing crisis, bought houses and condominium apartments and use them as rental properties, since so many homeowners lost their homes and had neither the money nor the credit to buy, rather than rent. Hedge funds also entered into this investment market. So, cheap money unquestionably fueled housing purchases by investors, which is a cause of today’s low supplies.

 

_ _ _

About the Author

Neil Siskind is: President of The Siskind Law Firm, focused on product investments, trademark licensing, product distribution, and real estate; Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment™, a think tank and advocate for children with absentee fathers; Founder of the global charity marketing initiative, Caring is Free®; Founder of National Fatherhood Day™; Owner & Conservator of The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve, over 8 acres of conserved waterfront land along New York’s majestic Hudson River; and author of The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products. If you are in need of office space in South Florida, contact Neil Siskind about space availability at The Siskind Executive Office Complex in Boca Raton, FL.

Other Recent Articles by Neil S. Siskind:

• The Yield Curve Speaketh: Why Stocks Might Crash In Early 2018
• Is Snap Getting Acquired: Reason Enough To Own Snap Stock
• The Yield Curve And The Fed Are On Exactly The Same Page
• New JonBenet DNA Test: A Farce
• Beware Of False Financial Premises
• A Flattening Yield Curve: Is “Housing Inflation” The New “Wage Inflation”?
• A Vital Legal Fact About Athletes And The National Anthem
• Snapchat vs. Instagram: Analysts And Journalists Are Simply Missing It
• The Real Reason Why O.J. Should Not Have Been Paroled
• Will Amazon Be Buying Your Favorite Fashion Brand?
• Two Communications Brands Together: Will Apple Buy Snapchat (Part I)?
• Food Investing: When Taste Matters More Than Sales
• The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products
• Romney vs. Trump: Does Mitt Romney Respect the Value of Business Branding?
• To “Loan” is not to “Own”
• How the Sharks……Tank
• Is Licensing a Trademark Worth it?
• Distribution is King
• Why the “Affluenza” Defense is So Dangerous
• A Shark, a Chicken, and a Trademark
• Celebrities “and” Brands; Celebrities “as” Brands

 

Congratulations To Our U.S. Gymnastic Team Justice-Seekers

Great job. You are heroes and true gold medalists “in life”. You stood up to a challenge and prevailed (over evil). You are- therefore- winners!

Use your strength and experience as a positive in your lives- and to help parents learn to keep men from operating in young girl-oriented sports and education, and anything where men do not belong without constant female oversight. It’s sad- but true.

Go U.S.A. women … so proud! You are strong! You are Justice-Seekers! You competed and won.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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The Pawn And Check-Cashing Indicator

I’ve never seen so many pawn shops and check cashing businesses for sale nationwide (including payday loan companies). What is the reason?

These companies are not usually for sale in strong economies. They do volume.

Here are some thoughts.

Pawn shops lend with the idea of either being paid back or turning a profit on the collateral. As for the former, if people in their communities are not steadily working, they likely will not be back to pay off their loan and collect their property. In that case, the pawn shop has to sell it to recover its money. But in an Amazon and Ebay world, it’s hard to sell some used piece of junk that someone can wither find elsewhere- or buy new over Amazon- or buy used from a reputable used product seller. The Internet has made finding cheap things so easy- pawn is not a good business to be in anymore.

As for check-cashing stores, if small businesses are not employing people, then most employed people work for large companies. Generally, people who work for Amazon and Walmart and Apple and Google, etc. … have bank accounts.

So, what this all tells me is that, as I continue to warn, there are 2 economies. One is of large, public companies that are growing and fueling the stock market- and the other is of small, private businesses, which, due to lack of scale and lack of distribution outlets – and which Amazon is destroying- are slowly shrinking and closing.

People who work for small businesses, including small construction companies, are the ones who usually lack bank accounts and use check cashing services. If these customers are less and less prevalent, then these businesses can’t survive.

When statistics show the economy and earnings growing, it is because the big companies are taking market share and are growing so fast and wide, that the growth overshadows the small businesses that close in their wakes. Many small businesses do not report all their revenues and earnings, so the tax base and data do not miss them as much when they are gone and they don’t show up in the statistics as much.

As for employment, there are many reason that he unemployed don;t show up in the data. Some are illegals, some are ex-business owners who never took salaries, some have taken worse jobs and can’t claim unemployment. Remember- every person that buys an Amazon product is failing to buy another product from another company that makes it, and is failing to buy that other product at another retail store that sells it. It is binary. It is a zero sum game- a winner, and losers.

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment

Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/

Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products