Inflation And Deflation Have Nothing To Do With Interest Rates … Sorta – By NEIL SISKIND

Many believe that the Fed may cut its target funds rate in an attempt to stoke inflation and drive the PCE deflator closer to or beyond 2%. This, and any “insurance cut”, as ways to stimulate inflation, are untenable.

When you have structural factors causing deflation or disinflation, low interest rates won’t change the deflationary pressures. How has it worked so far? Sure, rates have been rising … but they’re low.

I’m a believer that, unfortunately, because of the Internet, “scale” is the future, and only 1-3 large companies will exist in any industry, such as how Lowe’s and Home Depot are running local hardware stores out of Dodge (which is why I never buy small-cap stocks). This will cause labor to have fewer employment options and less bargaining power. It’s already happening. This has and will continue to result in stagnant wages for longer than in the past, and low price inflation, as scale allows for input cost and price controls, in addition to wage suppression power. It’s all already happening.

Low rates can, actually, contribute to or even cause “de”-flation.

Cheap capital allows unprofitable companies to “scale”, as investors remain tolerant of the time it takes to corner a market (a la Amazon’s rise), creating the wage and price structures to depress inflation; this is includes the growth of start-up companies that are funded to achieve top line growth- margins be damned.

The Internet encourages size and scale, in B2C and in B2B, as the best search results and largest presences attracts the most customers. Attracting the most customers, in turn, allows for the lowest prices and the goal of volume over margin- and cornering an industry’s market (a la Amazon).

How would lower interest rates change these situations to enhance inflation? How would creating more demand- from businesses or from consumers- change the low inflation caused by a structural evolution through the combinations of technology and “scale” (a result of technology), and a global work force, to boot?

I’m not suggesting that low interest rates can’t stimulate growth and demand; it just can’t stimulate inflation that is suppressed by a particular economic structure, especially if it’s the cheap money that is allowing for scale and the resulting lower prices and lower wages. I’m also not suggesting that the Fed would not attempt to do create inflation with lower rates- lots of Central Banks are attempting to do so.

Only legislation and policy related to an economic structure, and not monetary policy, can affect consumer price inflation caused by structural deflation or disinflation- and, even still, technology and globalization are the primary factors. Legislative policy would have to prohibit or suppress these economic forces.

Trying to offset structural deflation or disinflation with cheap money, rather than with policy, or rather than accepting the reality of it, would be a grave mistake.

The Fed, after stoking asset and credit bubbles with low interest rates, would have to then raise rates to slow or deflate any bubbles it caused, killing-off slow growing economies (i.e. the situation we are now finding ourselves in- credit risk is growing, but the underlying economy, sans cheap money, is too weak to handle higher rates to help control credit risks).

Cheap money hasn’t been the inflation answer … it could be just the opposite … but unregulated cheap money has fueled shadow banking activities and credit expansion in ways that we will all live to regret later … or sooner.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

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U.S.–China Trade Deal: Here’s Why “Who Goes First” Makes A World of Difference-by NEIL SISKIND

The most important determination to be made in a US-China trade dispute resolution is “which side will go first”. This will determine how a deal is enforced.

The US wants China to perform before tariffs are removed, while China wants tariffs removed before performance.

The parties may agree on everything, but if they can’t agree on “this”, then there’s no deal. It’s not just about which side will concede. Here’s the big issue no one’s articulating: To determine which side goes first is also to determine which party has the “burden of proof” going forward- an enormous matter.

If China performs with tariffs in place, it would have the “burden of proving its performance” before tariff removal. If the US removes tariffs first, the US would have to track China around the globe and investigate China’s activities across the world, with the “burden of proving material nonperformance” before levying tariffs- a Herculean task, at great cost to taxpayers.

In the former scenario, China would work hard to prove compliance. In the latter, China could delay responses, conceal activities, and prolong investigations.

It’s not what you know … it’s what you can prove.

Who wants “that” burden?

Why should the U.S. accept the burden to “re-prove” violations we already know of? Why should U.S. taxpayers pay to “re-prove” that China is not following international laws or global trade practice, or to “disprove” that China is honoring its covenants. 

This is and has always been about “China’s” activities and violations. It should be China’s burden to prove its performance, at China’s expense- and that requires China to go first. 

So, why do I say that the burden of proof is on the U.S. once tariffs are removed as part of a trade dispute resolution?

If the administration wants to put tariffs back on after removing them- it will have a very high bar. It will have to not just prove non-compliance, but “material” non-compliance. The administration will have to make a good and specific case to:

  1. Europe
  2. China (which, after making economic and systemic structural change would be irate)
  3. Congress
  4. US consumers and voters
  5. US businesses

Even if China has the burden of proving performance- and fails, the administration would have a heck of a time putting tariffs back on without “excellent” reasons for doing so, and proving those reasons, with facts, without and within the United States, especially if the economy is weak.

 

Trade: Who Even Needs China To Agree? All We Need Are “Ceilings” by NEIL SISKIND

Many people seem to be misunderstanding the nature and character of the U.S.-China trade talks. This is not like NAFTA, where an existing trade deal needs to be replaced. We never had any trade deal with China- and, we don’t need one.

In all of these negotiations, China has not asked us for one single thing. We are the only one asking for things. The only thing that China wants from us is to remove the tariffs that we’re using to try to get China to change its behaviors and practices. We don’t need China’s agreement to our requests in order for America to move forward with business. The Trump administration can set forth its demands, and maintain the tariffs where they are (or higher or lower, or on more or fewer goods)- or remove them, altogether, with a last-chance window for China to make purchases and structural changes. We don’t need China to partake in these decisions. The United States can do whatever it wants. We are the one with the gripes- not China. We are the party being wronged- not China.

Getting a “deal” is not what matters most. What matters most is that the Trump administration sets fixed tariff rates as “ceilings”, and decides the maximum scope of goods coverage, to provide U.S. companies with certainty, and China with the motivation to change. Tariffs should be able to go lower- but never higher. There should be no penalties that send rates above the rate ceilings. If China makes a change that leads to a lower tariff, but then fails to maintain the changed practice, the ceiling rate for that tariff is still the highest rate that such tariff should ever go.

I propose that the administration send China its list of requirements in order for China to receive no-tariff or low-tariff access for its goods into the United States, including, but not limited to: The removal of tariffs on U.S. exports; China to purchase soybeans and other determined products; the ending of forced technology transfers for U.S. companies; the cessation of corporate espionage and IP theft by China, etc., in a document called The United States Of America’s Trade Cooperation Effort With The People’s Republic of China, signed by the President of the United States. The document should notify China of the tariff rates and the categories of goods receiving the tariffs, and guide China on how U.S. product purchases, structural changes, and changed practices, once proved, will work to reduce tariff rates, per a schedule that sets-out the tariff reduction China will earn for any milestone it reaches, with China to bear the burden of proof.

For example, if China purchase “X” dollars of soybeans and corn over the next twenty-four months, certain tariffs are lowered by two percentage points, and will remain at the lowered rate, provided that China’s subsequent purchases of such products never fall below “X” dollars during any subsequent twelve month period.

The same concept would apply for structural changes, with the milestones used for measurements of changes, and the time-frames required to prove true and permanent changes, and the tariff consequences, to be crafted appropriately.

We don’t need China’s agreement to this. We just need to draft the document, sign it, and send it- to be effective immediately.

From there, China can request modifications to The Trade Cooperation Effort document’s terms, which the administration can consider as we’re moving forward with commerce using the ceiling tariff rates that are set on Chinese exports to the U.S., at levels that provide certainty, visibility, and financial viability for U.S. businesses- and an incentive for China to change its ways. What matters most is that we implement tariff rate “ceilings” and set the maximum scope of goods coverage, to provide American companies with certainty.

China will have to pay the tariffs until it meets our objectives and requirements. No “deal” is needed. Any “deal” would be based on China’s future performances, anyway; no immediate actions will come from any “deal” that can resolve the numerous issues between the parties. Time will be required, any way it’s sliced.

The trade talks are just goodwill by the administration to build a mutual consensus. But we are not “asking” China to change- we are telling China that if it fails to change, the costs of doing business with us will rise. “Stop breaking international laws and defying international trade rules and practices, and then we will accept your products, without tariffs.”

That’s the deal.

I’m not suggesting that we end the talks with China, I’m only clarifying that we don’t need China’s agreement and decision on these matters. People are getting too caught-up in whether we get a “deal” from China. Having the administration set rate-ceilings and finalize the maximum scope of goods coverage in order to provide U.S. businesses with certainty, and China with a strong incentive to make more purchases of U.S. products and structural changes to its economy and its legal and financial systems, is far more important than are China’s decisions or agreements.

President Trump: Set tariff rate ceilings and the maximum scope of goods coverage, and send China The United States Of America’s Trade Cooperation Effort With The People’s Republic of China document, and let’s move on. China will have to figure it out from there.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

Neil-Siskind-lawyer-picture

Enforcement Of A U.S.-China Trade Deal- by NEIL SISKIND

Riddle: How many government lawyers does it take to draft a contract enforcement clause?

I don’t know the answer, but there’s only “one” possible enforcement mechanism that will motivate China to change, while also providing much-needed certainty and visibility for U.S. companies, and without creating an undue cost-burden for U.S. companies:

Fixed tariff rates on Chinese exports at or near the tariff rates and for the same scope of goods as the existing tariffs, which will act as a ceiling on tariff rates and on categories of products.

As long as China is making required purchases and implements only agreed tariff rates on U.S. exports to China, the tariff rates on Chinese goods never rise, and the scope never widens. The rates go lower and lower as China hits benchmarks on structural changes.

This the only tenable enforcement mechanism; pro-active (not re-active) tariffs. “We” started this process. “We” put the tariffs in place. As part of a settlement, we shouldn’t have to prove violations that we already know about- hence the tariffs! Why would we make a deal where we have to prove what we already know before we can levy a penalty? Why would we accept any burden of proof? China should have to prove its altered its practices.

Any purchases of U.S. goods made by China would only be made in place of goods they would buy elsewhere, anyway. There’s no downside or imposition. Moreover, our agreement to not raise tariffs further is the consideration for the new purchases. No one ever promised that 10% tariff rates were the cap. To the contrary- higher rates were always in the offing.

China can have zero tariffs in the U.S. if it stops the protectionist policies, the corporate espionage, the misappropriation of our IP, the manipulation of its currency, and the persistent arrogant defiance of a nation whose business it clearly needs; all perfectly reasonable requests from a trade partner.

It’s worth pointing-out that in all of these negotiations, China has not asked the U.S. to change any of its policies or practices. Not even one. Even China knows that we have been a generous and righteous trading partner. I’ve wondered what all of their negotiators are saying during these months of negotiations. They never seem to request anything of us. They only seem to keep asking “us” to stop asking things of “them”. The only thing we have that China wants changed is the tariffs. Why should we change that “one” thing until China changes the ten things we’ve been asking of them for years?

 

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

A China Trade Deal’s Effect On Stock Prices- by NEIL SISKIND

I keep hearing financial market analysts and market-watchers suggest that a trade deal sans tariffs will lead to a rally in stocks. This would be a most absurd and irrational result.

A trade deal sans tariffs would, necessarily, be paired with penalties where tariffs would be levied if China should fail to meet obligations under the deal. This would create a perpetual lack of certainty for businesses that import from China. Without certainty as to costs and supply chains, businesses that import from China can’t plan far into the future and have consistent visibility into earnings farther out than the tips of their respective corporate noses. Without visibility into earnings, how can investors calculate what a company’s stock will be worth in the future- where even the company itself can’t do so?

It’s the “cost visibility”, stupid.

This is why I have been explaining that tariffs should stay in place at a “ceiling rate” that can’t rise, but can go lower if, and only if, China proves it has executed on promises for structural changes (with an exception being that if China fails to make promised purchases, then tariff rate caps are off the table). This is the ultimate enforcement mechanism. This gives China an incentive to execute on future obligations- purchases and structural changes, both- while providing U.S. businesses with input cost certainty (at least with regard to tariffs). Without certainty on costs, businesses can’t have visibility into earnings … and then investors can’t have visibility into stock values of such businesses.

We should favor neat and clear incentives that provide certainty, over sloppy and vague benchmarks and contingent penalties.

The thought of every month, or every quarter, or every year- or whatever time period is agreed by the parties to be used to review and evaluate if benchmarks have been met by China- all of the meetings, hearings, proceedings, adjourned deadlines, empty threats, countdowns to new deadlines, etc., that could occur while businesses wait to see what, if any, tariffs may be placed on their imports, is totally untenable and unacceptable- and creates an environment that goes far beyond uncertain; and we can only assume this is the chaos and complexity with which the process would unfold. Even without any chaos or protracted reviews and discussions, businesses would still be in a position of holding their collective breath as each measurement date approaches and unfolds.

Any stock rally on a trade deal sans tariffs will be short-lived … or just, simply, baseless. The only stocks that have good reason to rise on such a deal would be China’s.

But, provide a deal where input costs in the way of tariffs are “known-knowns”- and you could see much-needed business investments that lead to productivity and growth in GDP and earnings, and, then, higher stock prices.

Stocks can rise for lots of reasons[1], but if investors believe that stocks will rise and remain elevated as the result of a U.S.-China trade deal that contains the perpetual potential for tariffs as penalties on China if China fails to follow through on its obligations …

… let those who are clairvoyant with respect to China’s subsequent behaviors cast the first bid.

A trade deal with tariffs may not see stocks rally; but neither will a deal that leaves businesses with blurry views of future costs and earnings.

And this all is to say nothing of the risks to businesses, worldwide, of China continuing with its illegal and unethical trade practices if penalties are used to ensure compliance- rather than having China prove compliance before tariffs are reduced or removed. Trade practices detrimental to U.S. businesses would be far more difficult to monitor and prevent in a no-tariff deal.

_________________________________

fn

  1. U.S. equities and fixed income markets may be affected by many other things much more than a trade deal, including central bank policies, the national debt, household debt, demographics, and liquidity. Though, business investments and earnings, vital parts of an economy that can affect all other parts of the economy, can be affected by the status of large trade relationships, keeping in mind, though, that exports are a small contributor to U.S. GDP.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
Neil-Siskind-photo
Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
Neil-Siskind-Picture

The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

Sponsored Advertisements

Inventors, IP Owners, Manufacturers
Learn How To Bring Products To Market And To Expand Your Distribution Channels
The Complete Guide To The Ways To Manufacture & Sell Your Products

 

A Proper Enforcement Clause For A Proper Trade Deal- By NEIL SISKIND

The big talk around a trade deal- if there is even an agreement on terms- is how to go about the “enforcement” of those terms.

Riddle: How many government lawyers does it take to draft an effective contract enforcement clause?

I’m not sure of the answer, but the only proper enforcement provision in a U.S.-China trade deal is one where, in exchange for China making and being obligated to make even more purchases of U.S. products, and removing retaliatory and other tariffs on US imports, tariffs below 25% remain levied upon imported Chinese goods until they perform as agreed; the tariffs could be at any reasonable and productive rate- 5%, 8%, 10%- on the products presently receiving the 10% tariff, or they could be 2%, 4%, 6%, on “all” imported Chinese goods- whatever the math is that will incentivize China to change its objectionable trade practices, while also not unduly burdening U.S. businesses.

The rate should be a “ceiling” and never go higher (unless China fails to make the agreed product purchases or fails to remove all retaliatory and other tariffs on U.S. imports), such that U.S. businesses have visibility and certainty.

China can then get tariffs to go lower and lower as they hit their benchmarks and meet their agreed upon obligations for structural changes.

There’s your enforcement clause. And there’s your trade deal.

Any deal that has no tariffs, or a penalty provision where tariffs go higher if China fails to execute on structural changes, would be a bad deal. Such would allow China’s economy to re-boot without changing, create uncertainty for U.S. businesses (in cases where tariffs can rise as a penalty), leave the U.S. government and businesses vulnerable to China’s activities, and be no different than where we were before we had any deal (save for more soybean and corn purchases, perhaps). But, any deal simply requiring China to make purchases of products that it needs to buy from somewhere anyway, in order to get lower tariffs, would not be a noteworthy achievement. In fact, it would be a heck of a lot of work, at numerous nations’ expenses, our own included, just to make a soybean sale.

 

Neil S. Siskind, Esq., President
The Siskind Law Firm
Tel: 646.530.0006

Neil Siskind is the Founder & Chairman of The Fatherhood Assignment
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Learn more at:  http://www.neil-siskind-the-fatherhood-assignment.org/

Neil Siskind is the Conservator of the Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve
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The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve is over 8 acres of environmentally-pristine waterfront land in a magnificent setting along New York’s majestic Hudson River. The Preserve includes a variety of species of animal and plant life, and is a precious example of the thoughtful maintenance of New York’s priceless open spaces. The land’s uses are limited to outdoor recreation such as hiking and climbing, and the study of ecology, nature and land use. The Neil S. Siskind Nature Preserve allows for the intelligent contemplation of our valuable natural resources and the most effective ways to maximize them and keep them protected.

Neil Siskind, Founder, “National Fatherhood Day” – March 29th

Neil-Siskind-pics
To encourage recognition of the needs of boys and girls who are living without fathers or father-figures in their lives.

Read about the non-profits and charities whose missions Neil Siskind supports and promotes: www.neilsiskindsupports.com
Caring is Free®

You can read what clients and associates say about Neil Siskind at: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-bio/.

Neil Siskind’s Volunteer Work:

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Volunteer

– Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, My Fundraiser- Help Neil Siskindhelp children with cancer to be more comfortable: http://mskcc.convio.net/site/TR?px=3182108&fr_id=2632&pg=personal

– Make-A Wish Foundation- Help Neil Siskind make sick children’s wishes come true by creating your own fundraiser: Neil-Siskind/Help-Make-A-Child-Smile.htm

– DonorsChoose.org- Donate to one of my needy public classrooms: http://www.donorschoose.org/NeilSiskindGiving

– Champion Children– We seek to inspire people through stories of children who have overcome challenges: http://siskindlawfirm.com/neil-siskind-champion-children/


Neil Siskind’s Pro Bono
 Work:

– Saving Senior Citizens- Protecting New York’s senior citizens from fraud and financial abuse www.savingseniorcitizens.com

– Senior FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put senior citizens in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– Veteran FreeStart Business– Pro Bono: We seek to help put Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans in the right direction so that they can face the challenges of the modern economy: http://siskindlawfirm.com/free-start-business/

– In development: The Neil S. Siskind School of Hope: A free school to teach inner-city youths the skills of entrepreneurship and importance of economic self-sufficiency.

Neil Siskind’s Government Work:

– Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Boston, MA, 1994, Intern
– Office of Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Newington, CT, 1992, Intern
– Hartford County Department of Probation, Hartford, CT, 1991, Intern

Neil Siskind’s Community Assistance:

Financed & operated a legal clinic providing low-cost legal services to struggling Long Islanders during the recession to help clients resolve debt, organize finances, and launch new businesses.

Neil Siskind’s Professional Curriculum Vitae: http://neilsiskind.com/

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The Fed’s Most Potent Monetary Tool? – By NEIL SISKIND

While the Fed was hawkish during the latter part of 2018 (with the lack of any price and any serious wage inflation in sight), credit spreads widened, credit tightened, stock multiples contracted, and home sales declined. But, the Fed, actually, hiked rates only slightly, even after all that “a long way from neutral” talk, and then the Fed turned dovish- because the markets did most of the Fed’s work for it by reducing asset prices, capital misallocations, and credit risks.

The one tool that the Fed has been using that markets continue to overlook: Some good old-fashioned “jawboning”, to manage expectations. As long as markets fail to recognize the importance of this tool to monetary policy, it will remain one of the Fed’s most potent tools for managing investors and the economy.

The problem for Chairman Powell is that he can’t defend his actions by explaining this tactic, or he’d be unable to keep using it, and, in the future, he’d have to actually keep raising interest rates to affect market conditions- instead of relying on jawboning, alone.

Neil Siskind’s Poetry

A Truth Of Life

The life in wait of fair and right,
is life not lived in truthful light,
is life that’s lived in dark of night,
and life that’s blind, unblessed with sight.
Insist and wait for right and fair,
the sole and only one to care,
with pride inside, you’d bravely dare,
but long you’d wait- with no one there.